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SpaceX、OpenAI 和 Anthropic 已经是上市公司了 | 经济学人精读(312)
📖 文章概要
尽管 SpaceX、OpenAI 和 Anthropic 尚未正式 IPO，但它们实际上已经通过各种渠道成为“公开交易”的公司。文章指出，如果 SpaceX 今夏以750亿美元融资、估值接近2万亿美元上市，其金融影响堪比登陆火星。SpaceX 的巨大引力已经在扭曲公共市场：纳斯达克修改规则以吸引马斯克，一些上市公司成为其私人股票的“公开代理”——特斯拉虽只持有一小部分 SpaceX 股份，但两者共享硬件、软件和马斯克本人，分析师甚至设想未来合并成“马斯克公司”（包含 Optimus 机器人和 Grok 聊天机器人）。Alphabet 持有 SpaceX 6%股份（价值1070亿美元），其估值上涨贡献了 Alphabet 上季度近一半税前利润。亏损的电信公司 EchoStar 仅因将获得110亿美元 SpaceX 股票（交换频谱许可）就进入标普500指数。购买 SpaceX 股票如同购买比特币，能将最小的公司变成投机工具：年销售额仅1700万美元的家具公司 XMax，因激进购入 SpaceX 相关 SPV，市值达到“难以解释的”3.8亿美元；航空公司Jet.ai的主要产品是航班预订应用“CharterGPT”，也试图通过持有 SpaceX 股票吸引关注。SpaceX 股票在全球金融故事中如《阿甘正传》般无处不在：韩国券商 Mirae 因持有 SpaceX 股份，股价今年几乎翻三倍；美国市场上，许多 SpaceX 相关金融产品被散户疯狂购买，预测市场上人们甚至押注 SpaceX IPO 日期、估值和马斯克能否登陆火星。OpenAI 和 Anthropic 同样重要，以至于它们的财务状况影响公开市场：OpenAI 未达财务目标导致投资者软银股价暴跌约10%,Zoom 因持有 Anthropic 股份而在软件股大跌中受损较轻。文章最后指出，这三家公司高管路演时面对的投资者早已熟悉其业务，融资后老板们也不太会理会股东，将继续保持控制权。但上市将改变市场：投资者首次能获得这些支撑整个市场的技术公司的定期审计财务信息。文章揭示了美国资本主义的巨大实验：公司价值日益集中，但投资方式却在激增——结果是“无数赌注押在极少数巨型公司上”。SpaceX 的影子市场是极端例证，但这一模式在即将加入的公开股市中同样可见。自1990年代末以来，美国上市公司数量持续下降，但总利润飙升；同时投资工具激增，ETF 数量已超过上市公司数量。市场围绕着越来越少的知名高管——和越来越多的匿名赌徒。
📚 雅思及以上水平生词与短语
1. industrial Frankenstein’s monster – 工业弗兰肯斯坦怪物
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比喻表达，文学典故
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文中用法： 指由不同部分拼凑成的巨型企业
26. subsume/səbˈsjuːm/ – 吸收；纳入
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动词，正式用语
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文中用法： which SpaceX subsumed in February (SpaceX 在2月吸收了它）
71. inexplicable/ˌɪnɪkˈsplɪkəbl/ – 难以解释的；莫名其妙的
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形容词，正式用语
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文中用法： an inexplicable $380m （难以解释的3.8亿美元），强调估值不合理
94. have a cameo in– 在……中客串；短暂出现
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习语，戏剧术语
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文中用法： has also had a cameo in （也在……中客串了一把）
98. beleaguered/bɪˈliːɡəd/ – 陷入困境的；四面楚歌的
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形容词，正式用语
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文中用法： one of Blue Owl‘s beleaguered lending funds (Blue Owl 陷入困境的贷款基金之一）
112. wager on/ˈweɪdʒə/ – 押注；打赌
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动词短语，赌博术语
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文中用法： anyone can wager on （任何人都可以押注）
122. ricochet/ˈrɪkəʃeɪ/ – 反弹；波及
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动词，比喻用法
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文中用法： ricochet through public markets （波及公共市场）
134. precipitate/prɪˈsɪpɪteɪt/ – 引发；促成
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动词，正式用语
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文中用法： precipitated by Anthropic‘s coding capabilities （由 Anthropic 的编程能力引发）
142. pitch to– 向……推介；游说
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动词短语，商业术语
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文中用法： be pitching to investors （向投资者推介）
172. wager/ˈweɪdʒə/ – 赌注；押注
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名词，赌博术语
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文中用法： a seemingly infinite number of wagers （看似无限数量的赌注）
173. a tiny cast of– 极少数的
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名词短语，数量表达
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文中用法： a tiny cast of enormous firms （极少数巨型公司）
🔄 英中双语对照翻译
标题与副标题
Finance & economics | The magnificent ten
财经 | 十巨头
SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are already public companies
SpaceX、OpenAI 和 Anthropic 已经是上市公司了
Investors have countless ways to bet on their success
投资者有无数种方式押注它们的成功
May 1st 2026
2026年5月1日
第一段：SpaceX 的“荒谬”IPO
This summer, an absurd company plans to go public at an absurd price. If SpaceX—the rocket-maker, internet provider, artificial-intelligence lab and social network controlled by Elon Musk—raises anything close to2trn, its initial public offering (IPO) will be the financial equivalent of landing on Mars.
今年夏天，一家荒谬的公司计划以荒谬的价格上市。如果 SpaceX——这家由埃隆·马斯克控制的火箭制造商、互联网提供商、人工智能实验室和社交网络——筹集接近750亿美元的资金，估值接近2万亿美元，那么其首次公开募股（IPO）将相当于在金融上登陆火星。
第二段：SpaceX 已在扭曲公共市场
Already the enormous gravity of SpaceX is bending public markets. Nasdaq has changed the rules on how quickly firms are included in its index to attract Mr Musk to the exchange. Some listed companies have become public proxies for its private stock. Most obvious is Tesla. Although it owns just a sliver of SpaceX, the pair share hardware, software and Mr Musk himself. Some analysts imagine the eventual creation of a consolidated Musk Inc, an industrial Frankenstein’s monster with the body of Optimus, Tesla’s robot, and the brain of Grok, the chatbot developed by xAI, which SpaceX subsumed in February. Others fret that SpaceX’s listing could undermine Tesla: after all, why would Mr Musk’s adoring retail investors put their money into a carmaker valued at 14 times its sales when they could buy a cosmic creator of superintelligence at 100 times?
SpaceX 的巨大引力已经在扭曲公共市场。纳斯达克改变了公司被纳入其指数的速度规则，以吸引马斯克到该交易所。一些上市公司已成为其私人股票的公开代理。最明显的是特斯拉。尽管它只持有 SpaceX 一小部分股份，但两者共享硬件、软件和马斯克本人。一些分析师设想最终创建一个合并的马斯克公司，一个工业弗兰肯斯坦怪物，拥有特斯拉机器人 Optimus 的身体和 xAI 开发的聊天机器人 Grok 的大脑——SpaceX 在2月吸收了 xAI。其他人担心 SpaceX 的上市可能会削弱特斯拉：毕竟，为什么马斯克的崇拜者散户投资者会把钱投入一家估值为其销售额14倍的汽车制造商，而他们可以以100倍的价格购买一个宇宙超级智能创造者？
第三段：Alphabet 和 EchoStar 的案例
Tesla is not the only big company whose value is tied to SpaceX. Alphabet, the parent of Google, owned 6% of it at the end of last year. This investment, made in 2015, is a large part of the $107bn of private shares on its balance-sheet, the rising valuations of which contributed almost half of Alphabet’s pre-tax profit in the latest quarter. In March EchoStar, a loss-making telecoms company, improbably shot into the S&P 500 index for no reason other than the $11bn of stock in SpaceX it is set to receive in exchange for selling its spectrum licences. “We have made our bet, and that is with SpaceX,” said EchoStar’s founder after nearly five decades betting on himself.
特斯拉不是唯一价值与 SpaceX 相关的大公司。谷歌的母公司 Alphabet 在去年年底持有其6%的股份。这项2015年的投资是其资产负债表上1070亿美元私人股份的很大一部分，其上涨的估值贡献了 Alphabet 上季度近一半的税前利润。3月，亏损的电信公司 EchoStar 不可思议地进入标普500指数，除了它将因出售频谱许可而获得的110亿美元 SpaceX 股票外，没有其他原因。“我们已经下注了，而且是押在 SpaceX 上，”EchoStar 的创始人在押注自己近五十年后说道。
第四段：SpaceX 股票的投机效应
Buying SpaceX, like buying bitcoin, can transform even the smallest company into a speculative vehicle. Consider XMax, a furniture business listed in America with only $17m of annual sales. Until recently it faced the threat of having its shares delisted because they were worth so little. Since September, though, it has aggressively bought into special-purpose vehicles (SPVs) which it says hold shares in SpaceX. Now its market value is an inexplicable $380m.Jet.ai, a tiny aviation company whose main product appears to be a flight-booking app called “CharterGPT”, attempted to collar the market’s attention in a similar way, though it is still worth less than the $5m of SpaceX shares the firm says it owns through an SPV.
购买 SpaceX，就像购买比特币一样，可以将最小的公司转变为投机工具。以 XMax 为例，这是一家在美国上市的家具企业，年销售额仅1700万美元。直到最近，它还面临因股价过低而被摘牌的威胁。然而自9月以来，它激进地买入了据称持有 SpaceX 股份的特殊目的实体（SPV）。现在其市值达到难以解释的3.8亿美元。Jet.ai是一家小型航空公司，其主要产品似乎是一个名为“CharterGPT”的航班预订应用，它试图以类似方式吸引市场关注，尽管其市值仍低于该公司称其通过 SPV 持有的500万美元 SpaceX 股份。
第五段：SpaceX 无处不在的影响
SpaceX stock lurks Forrest Gump-like in the background of every big financial story these days. In South Korea markets are soaring. The share price of Mirae, one of its biggest brokers, has almost tripled this year—but mostly because of its small investment in Mr Musk’s empire. SpaceX has also had a cameo in the private-credit panic. A chunk of its shares are, oddly, held by one of Blue Owl’s beleaguered lending funds.
SpaceX 股票如《阿甘正传》般潜伏在如今每个重大金融故事的背景中。在韩国，市场正在飙升。其最大券商之一 Mirae 的股价今年几乎翻了三倍——但主要是因为其对马斯克商业帝国的小额投资。SpaceX 还在私人信贷恐慌中客串了一把。奇怪的是，其一大块股份被 Blue Owl 陷入困境的贷款基金之一持有。
第六段：美国金融市场的运作原则
American finance operates under the same principle as American cooking: what average Joe wants, he must have in abundance. Accordingly, many ultra-processed SpaceX-flavoured products have been produced for retail investors. Remarkably, the largest holding in one exchange-traded fund (ETF) is an SPV which holds SpaceX stock. On prediction markets anyone can wager on the date of SpaceX’s IPO, how much it will be worth, the banks on the deal and whether Mr Musk will ever make it to Mars.
美国金融按照与美国烹饪相同的原则运作：普通人想要什么，他就必须大量拥有。因此，许多超加工的 SpaceX 风味产品已为散户投资者生产。值得注意的是，一只交易所交易基金（ETF）中的最大持仓是一个持有 SpaceX 股票的 SPV。在预测市场上，任何人都可以押注 SpaceX 的 IPO 日期、其价值、交易中的银行以及马斯克是否能登陆火星。
第七段：OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的影响
There are almost as many ways to bet on the fortunes of OpenAI and Anthropic, two AI labs that also plan to list their shares this year. So important are these private firms that their fortunes, too, ricochet through public markets. Reports this week that OpenAI has missed some financial targets sent the share price of SoftBank, a Japanese conglomerate that has invested vast sums in the model-maker, down by around 10%. Meanwhile, Zoom, a video-conferencing company, has mostly escaped the recent massacre of software stocks precipitated by Anthropic’s coding capabilities—because it owns a chunk of Anthropic.
押注 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 命运的方式几乎同样多，这两家 AI 实验室也计划今年上市。这些私人公司如此重要，以至于它们的命运也波及公共市场。本周有报道称 OpenAI 未达到一些财务目标，这导致向该模型制造商投入巨资的日本企业集团软银的股价下跌约10%。与此同时，视频会议公司 Zoom 基本逃脱了由 Anthropic 编程能力引发的软件股最近的大屠杀——因为它持有 Anthropic 的一大块股份。
第八段：上市路演的特殊性
When executives from SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic tour the world’s financial capitals to drum up interest before their listings, they will, unusually, be pitching to investors who are already intimately familiar with their businesses. Once the companies have raised the mountains of capital they are after, their bosses are unlikely to be bothered too much by such shareholders. SpaceX will remain controlled by Mr Musk; OpenAI, run by Sam Altman, and Anthropic, by Dario Amodei, are just as unlikely to embrace shareholder democracy. The governance of these firms might stay more or less the same, but markets will be transformed by their listings. The magnificent seven will become the magnificent ten. For the first time investors will digest regular, audited financial information about the technology whose promise seems to be holding up the entire market.
当 SpaceX、OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的高管巡回世界金融中心为上市造势时，他们将不同寻常地向已经非常熟悉其业务的投资者推介。一旦这些公司筹集到它们追求的巨额资本，它们的老板不太可能被这些股东过多打扰。SpaceX 将仍由马斯克控制；由 Sam Altman 经营的 OpenAI 和由 Dario Amodei 经营的 Anthropic 同样不太可能拥抱股东民主。这些公司的治理可能基本保持不变，但市场将被它们的上市改变。七巨头将变成十巨头。投资者将首次消化关于这项似乎支撑着整个市场的技术的定期、经审计的财务信息。
第九段：美国资本主义的伟大实验
American capitalism is in the midst of a great experiment. The value of its firms is becoming far more concentrated, even as the ways to invest in them are multiplying. The result is a seemingly infinite number of wagers on a tiny cast of enormous firms. The strange shadow markets for shares in SpaceX are one extreme illustration of the trend, but the pattern is also visible on the public stockmarket it will join. The number of listed American businesses has been in near-continuous decline since the late 1990s, though their combined profits have soared. At the same time, the number of investment vehicles has exploded: there are now more ETFs than there are listed firms. Markets are built around ever fewer famous executives—and ever more anonymous gamblers. ■
美国资本主义正处于一场伟大实验之中。其公司的价值正变得更加集中，即使投资它们的方式正在激增。结果是看似无限数量的赌注押在极少数巨型公司上。SpaceX 股票的奇怪影子市场是这一趋势的一个极端例证，但这一模式在它即将加入的公开股市上也可见。自1990年代末以来，美国上市企业的数量一直处于几乎持续的下降中，尽管它们的合计利润飙升了。与此同时，投资工具的数量激增：现在 ETF 的数量超过了上市公司的数量。市场围绕着越来越少的知名高管——和越来越多的匿名赌徒建立。■