当不确定性因素太多,机票预测App对今年的夏天也束手无策 | 大西洋月刊

✈️ 导读

本文是2026年6月9日发表在《大西洋月刊》上的专栏文章。夏季航空出行高峰来临，但燃油价格剧烈波动、地缘政治冲突等因素使票价规律完全失常。传统的机票预测App依赖历史数据，在面对霍尔木兹海峡封锁等“外生冲击”时，预测准确性急剧下降。文章分析了航空公司定价机制、预测工具的局限，并为不同风险偏好的旅客提供了购票建议。

Airfare-Prediction Apps Can’t Handle a Summer Like This One

机票预测App应对不了这样的夏天

The normal patterns of price changes may no longer hold true.

价格变化的正常规律可能不再成立。

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The casual air traveler has never had so much information at his fingertips. He sits before a battleship-worthy console of maps, prices, dates, and times; orders up grids that plot one variable against another. He is monitoring the situation. He is in conversation with his wallet, but also with his future self: Will he want to take the red-eye and leave his bags at the hotel all day? Will he want to leave the house at 4 a.m.? What’s so great about Iceland, anyway?

· 生词/短语

  · casual /ˈkæʒuəl/ adj. 普通的，非专业的

  · at one’s fingertips /fɪŋɡərtɪps/ 触手可及，了如指掌

  · battleship-worthy /ˈbætlʃɪp wɜːði/ adj. 堪比战舰的（形容设备复杂庞大）

  · console /ˈkɒnsəʊl/ n. 控制台，操作面板

  · grid /ɡrɪd/ n. 网格，表格

  · plot /plɒt/ v. 绘制（图表），标出

  · red-eye /ˌred ˈaɪ/ n. 红眼航班（夜间飞行，凌晨抵达）

· 重难点

  · “battleship-worthy console” 是夸张修辞，比喻现代旅行者使用的订票界面极其复杂。

  · “in conversation with his wallet” 是拟人表达，意为在权衡花费。

· 文化背景

  · 冰岛：近年来成为热门旅游目的地，但其高昂物价常引发游客调侃。

This stupendous array of choices, once reserved for professional travel agents, is emblematic of our optimized-shopping era. Consumers don’t just price-shop; they scrutinize rates of change, guided by algorithms that purport to know where prices are headed. With airfares at historic highs, the sites that advise travelers whether to buy now or wait have never felt more necessary. Unfortunately, they have rarely felt less helpful.

· 生词/短语

  · stupendous /stjuːˈpendəs/ adj. 惊人的，庞大的

  · array /əˈreɪ/ n. 一系列，大量

  · emblematic /ˌembləˈmætɪk/ adj. 象征性的，典型的

  · optimize /ˈɒptɪmaɪz/ v. 优化

  · scrutinize /ˈskruːtənaɪz/ v. 仔细检查，审视

  · purport /pəˈpɔːt/ v. 声称，标榜

  · at historic highs 处于历史高位

· 重难点

  · “they have rarely felt less helpful” 是双重否定与比较级的结合，实际意为“它们从未像现在这样没用”。

  · “price-shop” 作动词，指以价格为唯一标准进行购物。

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Sites such as Hopper, Kayak, and Google Flights are trained on price histories. “They use data from the past to inform models in the present that make predictions for the future. Their level of confidence and predictive accuracy drops—whether they disclose that or not—precipitously when there are exogenous shocks,” Oren Etzioni, a computer scientist who built and sold the pioneering airfare-prediction site Farecast to Microsoft in the 2000s, told me. The sites’ powers are limited in chaotic times, and chaotic this summer is.

· 生词/短语

  · be trained on 基于……进行训练

  · precipitously /prɪˈsɪpɪtəsli/ adv. 急剧地，陡然地

  · exogenous /ekˈsɒdʒənəs/ adj. 外生的，外部的

  · disclose /dɪsˈkləʊz/ v. 披露，公开

  · chaotic /keɪˈɒtɪk/ adj. 混乱的

· 重难点

  · “exogenous shocks” 是经济学常用术语，指来自系统外部的突发事件（如战争、自然灾害）。

  · “chaotic this summer is” 是倒装强调结构，正常语序为 “this summer is chaotic”。

· 文化背景

  · Farecast：2003年创立，2008年被微软收购并整合进Bing Travel，是机票预测领域的先驱。

  · Oren Etzioni：曾任艾伦人工智能研究所CEO，在AI和预测算法领域声誉卓著。

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Fare changes are a cat-and-mouse game in which airlines try to fill empty seats and capitalize on last-minute travel needs—countervailing tendencies that can lead to lower or higher prices, respectively. In the main, as most air travelers have probably experienced, the overwhelming trend is for tickets to get more expensive as the date of a flight approaches. But algorithms have been able to deduce currents within that rising tide. Generally speaking, these sites offer decently reliable predictions. AirHint claims that its recommendations are correct 80 percent of the time. Hopper once claimed that its predictions were 95 percent accurate. Back in 2019, Kayak told The Wall Street Journal that its timing advice saved the average customer $28. (The company declined to provide updated figures “given ongoing market volatility.”) These are of course data points generated by the companies themselves, but academic researchers have confirmed that making accurate airfare predictions is possible with publicly available data.

· 生词/短语

  · cat-and-mouse game 猫鼠游戏，相互博弈

  · capitalize on 利用，从中获利

  · countervailing /ˌkaʊntəˈveɪlɪŋ/ adj. 抵消的，抗衡的

  · respectively /rɪˈspektɪvli/ adv. 分别地

  · in the main 总的来说，大体上

  · overwhelming /ˌəʊvəˈwelmɪŋ/ adj. 压倒性的

  · deduce /dɪˈdjuːs/ v. 推断，推导

  · volatility /ˌvɒləˈtɪləti/ n. 波动性

· 重难点

  · “currents within that rising tide” 是比喻，将整体涨价趋势比作涨潮，潮水中还有暗流（短期降价波动）。

  · “decently reliable” 中的 “decently” 意为“相当地”，程度弱于 “very” 但强于 “slightly”。

· 文化背景

  · Hopper：加拿大旅行科技公司，以移动端App和票价预测算法闻名。

  · Kayak：知名机票比价搜索引擎，2019年被Booking Holdings收购。

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Airfares are determined by three main factors: customer demand, airline competition, and input costs such as labor and fuel. Events affecting the first two categories—a supersize World Cup, the disappearance of Spirit Airlines—have contributed to the summer’s high prices. But it’s the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the ensuing explosion in jet-fuel costs, that may overwhelm the predictable patterns of price changes.

· 生词/短语

  · supersize /ˈsuːpəsaɪz/ adj. 超大规模的 v. 扩大尺寸

  · disappearance /ˌdɪsəˈpɪərəns/ n. 消失，消亡

  · ensuing /ɪnˈsjuːɪŋ/ adj. 随之而来的

  · overwhelm /ˌəʊvəˈwelm/ v. 压倒，冲垮

  · closure /ˈkləʊʒə(r)/ n. 关闭，封闭

  · Strait of Hormuz 霍尔木兹海峡

· 重难点

  · “the disappearance of Spirit Airlines” 不是指公司倒闭，而是指其被并购或退出市场（该航司以低价策略著称，其“消失”减少了竞争）。

  · “it’s … that …” 为强调句型，强调造成影响的主因。

· 文化背景

  · 霍尔木兹海峡：全球最关键的石油运输通道之一，约20%的石油经此运输。2026年因地缘冲突被封锁。

  · 精神航空：美国廉价航空公司，以“超低票价+大量附加费”模式运营。

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“It’s a binary,” Zach Resnick, who runs the boutique travel service Ascend, told me. “If the blockade continues, a certain scale of disruption, especially in Asia and Europe, is not priced in.” With jet-fuel prices up in the air, sudden changes such as surcharges and canceled routes could still be in the works for later this year. That makes it harder than usual to know whether to buy or wait. In April, for example, Japan Airlines tacked an additional $170 surcharge onto flights to North America and Europe, citing “abnormally high” fuel prices. No algorithm saw that coming.

“这是一个二元情境，”精品旅行服务公司Ascend的负责人扎克·雷斯尼克告诉我，“如果封锁持续下去，一定规模的航班中断——尤其是在亚洲和欧洲——尚未被市场定价。”在航空燃油价格前景不明的情况下，附加费和航线取消等突发变化仍可能在今年晚些时候出现。这使得判断“现在买还是等”比平时更加困难。例如，今年4月，日本航空公司以“异常高”的燃油价格为由，对飞往北美和欧洲的航班额外加收了170美元的附加费。没有哪个算法预见到了这一点。

· 生词/短语

  · binary /ˈbaɪnəri/ n. 二元对立，二选一的局面

  · boutique /buːˈtiːk/ adj. 精品型的，小规模专业化的

  · blockade /blɒˈkeɪd/ n. 封锁

  · be priced in 被（市场）定价，已反映在价格中

  · in the works 在准备中，在进行中

  · tack on 附加，添上

  · surcharge /ˈsɜːtʃɑːdʒ/ n. 附加费，额外费用

  · citing /ˈsaɪtɪŋ/ v. 援引……作为理由

· 重难点

  · “not priced in” 是金融术语，指某一事件尚未被市场价格所反映。

  · “up in the air” 是双关语，既指燃油价格“悬而未决”，又呼应航空主题。

· 文化背景

  · 日航附加费：2026年4月实际发生的事件，反映燃油成本飙升对票价的直接传导。

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This wouldn’t be the first time the flight-prediction industry’s powers fell short. In 2022, as global aviation rebounded from the coronavirus pandemic, Aarian Marshall reported for Wired that the volatility in fares had forced Google Flights to fall short of its expected prediction accuracy of 90 percent. The company paused its offer, launched in 2019, to guarantee certain fares and send refunds to buyers if prices fell. (The feature was officially reinstated in 2023 but does not seem to apply to most flights.)

· 生词/短语

  · fell short 未达到，不足

  · rebound /rɪˈbaʊnd/ v. 反弹，复苏

  · pandemic /pænˈdemɪk/ n. 大流行病

  · guarantee /ˌɡærənˈtiː/ v. 保证，担保

  · refund /ˈriːfʌnd/ n. 退款

  · reinstate /ˌriːɪnˈsteɪt/ v. 恢复，复原

· 重难点

  · “powers fell short” 中的 “powers” 指预测能力。

  · “pause its offer” 指暂停该服务功能，而非完全取消。

· 文化背景

  · Google Flights价格保障：2019年推出，若通过Google Flights预订的航班在出发前降价，谷歌会退还差价，后因疫情波动暂停。

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These days, the apps seem to be showing the most consensus on waiting to book certain far-off domestic trips. For a Labor Day flight from Chicago to Las Vegas, for example, Hopper told me to wait, AirHint told me to wait, and Google Flights told me that the cheapest time to book is usually later. Expedia suggested that the price would drop by $5 on July 20. When I asked ChatGPT Pro, I received guidance to buy now for international travel but wait for domestic travel, based on Expedia’s 2026 “air hacks,” which posit that domestic economy prices bottom out 15 to 30 days before departure. (That figure is 31 to 45 days for international routes.) Hopper even advises waiting for prices to come down for several international flights. Aleksei Udachny, who runs AirHint, told me the ratio of “wait” to “buy” recommendations has gone up this year.

· 生词/短语

  · far-off /ˌfɑːr ˈɒf/ adj. 遥远的，远期的

  · Labor Day 劳动节（美国九月的第一个星期一）

  · hack /hæk/ n. 技巧，窍门

  · posit /ˈpɒzɪt/ v. 假定，认定

  · bottom out 触底反弹，降至最低点

  · ratio /ˈreɪʃiəʊ/ n. 比例

· 重难点

  · “air hacks” 是Expedia营销用语，指购票省钱技巧，并非黑客行为。

  · “bottom out” 原为股市术语，指价格跌至最低后开始回升。

· 文化背景

  · 劳动节：美国9月初的公共假期，是夏季最后一个出行高峰。

  · Expedia 2026 Air Hacks：Expedia每年发布的机票购买指南，基于历史数据提供最优预订窗口。

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Waiting may be good advice—unless something big shifts for the worse on the world stage, sending prices even higher. Although Udachny insists that this year’s challenges are not exceptional, and that trends have been largely predictable, other prognosticators are less confident. “When prices move outside typical ranges, we take a more conservative approach, sometimes limiting the recommendations rather than risk misleading travelers,” a Kayak spokesperson told me in an email. For certain queries, Kayak is not providing the option of price prediction, but is merely offering current prices. The airline expert Michael Taylor, from the consumer-review company J.D. Power, told Slate’s Alex Kirshner recently that trying to buy plane tickets based on the ups and downs of the war in Iran was like trying to time the stock market—subject to dumb luck.

· 生词/短语

  · shift for the worse 恶化，变糟

  · exceptional /ɪkˈsepʃənl/ adj. 例外的，异常的

  · prognosticator /prɒɡˈnɒstɪkeɪtə(r)/ n. 预测者

  · conservative /kənˈsɜːvətɪv/ adj. 保守的，谨慎的

  · misleading /ˌmɪsˈliːdɪŋ/ adj. 误导性的

  · query /ˈkwɪəri/ n. 查询，问题

  · be subject to 受……支配，取决于

  · dumb luck 纯粹的运气，瞎运气

· 重难点

  · “timing the stock market” 指试图通过预测短期涨跌来低买高卖，被普遍认为几乎不可能。

  · “the ups and downs of the war” 将战争局势比作股价波动，暗示其不可预测性。

· 文化背景

  · J.D. Power：全球知名的消费者满意度调研公司，其航空业排名具有较高权威性。

  · Slate：美国知名在线杂志。

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I asked Etzioni, whose app was originally called Hamlet (slogan: “To buy or not to buy”), how he would handle a recommendation to wait. “I’d take it with a huge grain of salt, unless I was a betting man and willing to take a substantial risk,” Etzioni said.

· 生词/短语

  · slogan /ˈsləʊɡən/ n. 口号，标语

  · take something with a grain of salt 对……持怀疑态度，半信半疑

  · substantial /səbˈstænʃəl/ adj. 巨大的，可观的

· 重难点

  · “To buy or not to buy” 模仿莎士比亚《哈姆雷特》经典独白 “To be or not to be”。

  · “a huge grain of salt” 是 “a grain of salt” 的夸张变体，强调极度不信任。

· 文化背景

  · 哈姆雷特：莎士比亚悲剧中的丹麦王子，其“生存还是毁灭”的独白是西方文学中最著名的段落之一。

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The same thing that made prices high can still make them higher, because fuel is a crucial component of airline costs, accounting for about one-third of the cost of operating a flight. Already, Delta has said it is paying about twice as much for fuel as it did last year. Fuel isn’t just an input cost that gets passed along to ticket buyers. High fuel costs also force airlines to cancel flights—Lufthansa announced in April that it would cancel 20,000 flights; United cut capacity for this year by 5 percent in March—making fewer seats available than usual. The U.S. Travel Association and the Airlines Reporting Corporation both calculate that domestic fares are up more than 20 percent this spring. Some international destinations are much more expensive than last year: Flights from the United States to London are $300 more, per Kayak, up to $1,151 from $826.

· 生词/短语

  · crucial /ˈkruːʃl/ adj. 关键的，至关重要的

  · account for 占比，占据

  · pass along 转嫁，传递给

  · capacity /kəˈpæsəti/ n. 运力，容量

  · calculate /ˈkælkjuleɪt/ v. 计算，估算

  · domestic /dəˈmestɪk/ adj. 国内的

· 重难点

  · “gets passed along to ticket buyers” 指航空公司将成本上涨通过提价转嫁给消费者。

  · “cut capacity” 中的 “capacity” 指可用座位数或航班频次。

· 文化背景

  · 达美航空、美联航、汉莎航空：分别为美国、美国、德国的三大航司。

  · 航空公司报告公司：为美国航司和旅行社提供机票结算数据的第三方机构。

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Even if a lasting peace brings the Persian Gulf oil trade back to normal, airline executives have warned that a resolution may not bring down prices right away. Willie Walsh, the head of the International Air Transport Association, the trade group for the world’s airlines, told The Guardian in May that the fuel-induced price hikes are likely to continue for months and even into next year.

· 生词/短语

  · lasting /ˈlɑːstɪŋ/ adj. 持久的

  · resolution /ˌrezəˈluːʃn/ n. 解决，解决方案

  · right away 立刻，马上

  · executive /ɪɡˈzekjətɪv/ n. 高管

  · trade group 行业协会

  · induce /ɪnˈdjuːs/ v. 引起，诱发

  · hike /haɪk/ n. 大幅上涨

· 重难点

  · “fuel-induced price hikes” 中的 “-induced” 后缀意为“由……引起的”。

  · “lasting peace” 在当前语境下是一种假设性表达，暗指和平短期内难以实现。

· 文化背景

  · 国际航空运输协会（IATA）：代表约300家航空公司，占全球航空运量的80%以上。

  · 威利·沃尔什：曾任英国航空母公司IAG的CEO，2021年起担任IATA理事长。

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In this environment, the savvy traveler might want to set aside the algorithms and just buy tickets sooner rather than later. Gary Leff, who writes the aviation blog View From the Wing, told me that flyers who want a specific itinerary probably shouldn’t wait to see what happens—last-minute bargains may require flexibility with travel dates, times, and layovers. Additionally, any potential savings from correctly timing the cheapest fare can be small compared with possible last-minute price surges if you guess wrong. He advised that those who are able can always hedge with a refundable ticket: If the price goes down, the airline may provide a credit to use at a later date. If the price goes up, you’re locked in.

· 生词/短语

  · savvy /ˈsævi/ adj. 精明的，有经验的

  · set aside 搁置，放在一边

  · itinerary /aɪˈtɪnərəri/ n. 行程，旅行计划

  · flexibility /ˌfleksəˈbɪləti/ n. 灵活性

  · layover /ˈleɪəʊvə(r)/ n. 中转停留

  · surge /sɜːdʒ/ n. 激增，暴涨

  · hedge /hedʒ/ v. 对冲，规避风险

  · refundable /rɪˈfʌndəbl/ adj. 可退款的

  · credit /ˈkredɪt/ n. 抵扣额度，代金券

  · be locked in 锁定（价格或状态）

· 重难点

  · “sooner rather than later” 固定表达，意为“尽早而非拖延”。

  · “hedge” 借自金融术语，指通过某种操作降低风险。

· 文化背景

  · 可退改机票：通常价格更高，但提供了灵活性；航空公司的抵扣额度常有使用期限限制。

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Still, travelers comfortable with risk—that a trip might not pan out, or that it may require spending 18 hours in Reykjavik—may prefer to wait. Sometimes waiting works, because in the short term, airlines have a relatively inflexible supply of flights. They are guessing what the market will bear, and sometimes they get it wrong. That means last-minute deals for buyers, even in summers like this one.

· 生词/短语

  · be comfortable with 对……感到自在，能接受

  · pan out 成功，有结果

  · Reykjavik /ˈreɪkjəvɪk/ n. 雷克雅未克（冰岛首都）

  · inflexible /ɪnˈfleksəbl/ adj. 缺乏弹性的，僵化的

  · bear /beə(r)/ v. 承受，承担

  · last-minute /ˌlɑːst ˈmɪnɪt/ adj. 最后一刻的

  · deal /diːl/ n. 便宜货，优惠

· 重难点

  · “relatively inflexible supply” 经济学概念：航班排班一旦确定，短期内难以快速增减。

  · “what the market will bear” 商业定价原则，指在不导致需求崩溃的前提下能收取的最高价格。

· 文化背景

  · 雷克雅未克：冰岛国际门户，也是跨大西洋航班常见的中转点，长时间停留（layover）是其特色（或槽点）。