《i理财》关于美国以色列vs伊朗战争的说明

我们并不过度担忧美以与伊朗局势对市场的潜在冲击。历史规律表明，战争爆发初期，市场通常会出现阶段性回撤；但随着时间推移，市场会逐步消化这些负面消息，最终重新回归上涨轨道。

We are not overly concerned about the market impact of a potential conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Historically, while the onset of war often triggers an initial market pullback, these negative headlines are typically “priced in” over time, allowing the market to resume its upward trajectory.

以俄乌冲突为例，2022年爆发的俄乌战争是一个极佳的参照。尽管其烈度极高且持续至今，但美股在经历初期震荡后，于2023年至2025年间展现了极强的韧性，三年累计涨幅高达 50%。这种复苏趋势在亚洲市场同样得到了验证。香港恒生指数也在2024年和2025年迎来了强劲反弹。

The Russia-Ukraine war, which began in 2022, serves as a recent and powerful example. Despite its high intensity and prolonged duration, the U.S. stock market demonstrated remarkable resilience. Following the initial shock, U.S. equities saw significant gains in 2023, 2024, and 2025, delivering a cumulative three-year return of approximately 50%. Similarly, the Hong Kong market showed strong momentum in 2024 and 2025, reflecting a robust recovery in Asian markets.

纵观更长历史维度下的多次战争，结论基本一致：无论地缘政治如何演变，股市的长远表现最终取决于经济增长，而非战争本身。因此，从资产配置的角度来看，战争引起的恐慌性下跌往往不是离场的信号，反而可能是加仓布局的机遇期，是低吸的好机会。

Looking further back at historical conflicts, the pattern remains consistent: stock markets ultimately track long-term economic growth rather than geopolitical volatility. From an asset allocation perspective, the “war dip” at the start of a conflict often presents a strategic buying opportunity rather than a reason to exit.