夜雨聆风文章来源：经济学人20260502刊
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伊朗战争导致霍尔木兹海峡关闭，全球石油供应遭遇历史性冲击。尽管油价已大幅上涨，但市场仍与现实脱节。本文分析油价为何可能继续攀升，以及和平协议、海峡重开、燃料短缺等问题面临的复杂挑战。
Oil markets are still in La La land
石油市场仍在“梦幻岛”
【第一段】
SOMEONE WAS sniffing the butane.Energy experts have long warned that the war in Iran was causing the biggest oil-supply shock in history. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz shut in 14m barrels a day of oil. To destroy that much demand, they said, the price of Brent crude should be more than double its pre-war level, at well over $150 a barrel. But oil traders were in a stupor. As recently as April 17th prices were below $90 a barrel. Over the past week, on talk of renewed fighting, they have been waking up. On April 30th prices spiked above $125.
有人像是在嗅丁烷。能源专家长期警告称，伊朗战争正在引发历史上最大的石油供应冲击。霍尔木兹海峡的关闭导致每天1400万桶石油供应中断。他们说，要抑制如此巨大的需求，布伦特原油价格应该是战前水平的两倍多，远高于每桶150美元。但石油交易商一直昏昏欲睡。就在4月17日，油价还低于每桶90美元。过去一周，随着重启战事的传言，他们开始苏醒。4月30日，油价飙升至125美元以上。
butane /ˈbjuːteɪn/ 丁烷
supply shock /səˈplaɪ ʃɒk/ 供应冲击
Brent crude /brent kruːd/ 布伦特原油
stupor /ˈstjuːpə/ 恍惚，麻木
spike /spaɪk/ 急剧上升
【第二段】
Unfortunately, as bad as things are, the disconnect with reality endures. Not only may spot prices have further to climb, but the oil-futures market, in which speculators bet on where the oil price is going, says prices will fall every month for the rest of the year, ending 2026 at about $88. That implies most of this shock will soon be reversed. If so, traders must believe three things are true: that America and Iran will soon strike a peace deal; that their agreement will reopen Hormuz; and that, soon after the strait is clear, petrol and jet fuel will once again be plentiful.All those are in doubt.
不幸的是，尽管情况已很糟糕，但与现实的脱节依然存在。不仅现货价格可能进一步攀升，而且石油期货市场（投机者在此押注油价走势）显示，今年剩余时间油价每月都会下跌，到2026年底约为88美元。这意味着大部分冲击将很快被逆转。如果是这样，交易商必须相信三件事：美国和伊朗很快会达成和平协议；协议将使霍尔木兹海峡重新开放；海峡畅通后不久，汽油和航空燃油将再次充足。这些全都存疑。
disconnect /ˌdɪskəˈnekt/ 脱节
spot price /spɒt praɪs/ 现货价格
oil-futures market /ɔɪl ˈfjuːtʃəz ˈmɑːkɪt/ 石油期货市场
speculator /ˈspekjuleɪtə/ 投机者
in doubt /ɪn daʊt/ 存疑
【第三段】
One thing everybody should be able to agree on is that for the strait to stay shut would be a disaster. At the start of the war, lots of oil was in stocks or tankers at sea. But the ships that passed through Hormuz before the conflict had all docked by April 20th. Oil stocks will soon be at their lowest since satellite tracking began in 2018. Volumes of petrol, diesel and jet fuel at sea are already so low that gaps in supply will be inevitable. And in America petrol demand is about to surge, as the summer tempts people to get in their cars and drive.
有一件事大家应该都能同意：海峡继续保持关闭将是一场灾难。战争开始时，大量石油储存在库存或海上油轮中。但在冲突前通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只已于4月20日前全部靠港。石油库存将很快降至2018年卫星追踪以来的最低水平。海上的汽油、柴油和航空燃油量已经非常低，供应缺口将不可避免。而在美国，随着夏季诱惑人们驾车出行，汽油需求即将激增。
tanker /ˈtæŋkə/ 油轮
dock /dɒk/ 靠港
diesel /ˈdiːzəl/ 柴油
inevitable /ɪnˈevɪtəbəl/ 不可避免的
surge /sɜːdʒ/ 激增
【第四段】
Everybody should also acknowledge the stakes. Asia’s petrochemical industry has already idled capacity. Since the war prices of diesel and jet fuel have doubled in Asia and more than doubled in Europe. Unlike stockmarkets, where bubbles can be sustained by animal spirits alone, the price of oil is tethered to the economy at petrol pumps, docks and airports. If supply falls short of demand, prices must rise to bring about balance. There are already reports of barrels of diesel selling for $600. Good cheer cannot supplant reality.
每个人都应该认识到其中的利害关系。亚洲的石化行业已经闲置了产能。自战争以来，柴油和航空燃油价格在亚洲翻了一番，在欧洲翻了一倍多。与股市不同（股市泡沫可以仅靠动物精神维持），石油价格与加油站、码头和机场的经济活动紧密相连。如果供不应求，油价必须上涨以实现平衡。已经有报道称，柴油每桶售价达到600美元。乐观无法取代现实。
stakes /steɪks/ 利害关系
petrochemical /ˌpetrəʊˈkemɪkəl/ 石化的
idle /ˈaɪdəl/ 闲置
animal spirits /ˈænɪməl ˈspɪrɪts/ 动物精神（非理性市场情绪）
supplant /səˈplɑːnt/ 取代
【第五段】
The case for optimism is obvious. Donald Trump’s wild posting signals not just that he is rudderless, but also that he will step in whenever oil prices rise too high. Iran’s economy is broken: it urgently needs cash, which means it, too, will want a deal. If an impasse brings ruin to both sides, it will end.
乐观的理由显而易见。唐纳德·特朗普的疯狂发帖不仅表明他毫无方向，也表明只要油价涨得太高，他就会介入。伊朗经济已崩溃：它急需现金，这意味着它也想达成协议。如果僵局给双方带来毁灭，那就一定会结束。
rudderless /ˈrʌdələs/ 无舵的，无指导的
step in /step ɪn/ 介入
broken /ˈbrəʊkən/ 崩溃的
impasse /ˈɪmpæs/ 僵局
ruin /ˈruːɪn/ 毁灭
【第六段】
The Economist is loth tosecond-guess those who have the facts to hand and billions of dollars at stake. However, markets have a poor record of pricing geopolitical risk. And with oil, they struggle to assess the complexities of the physical trade.
《经济学人》不愿事后质疑那些掌握事实、事关数十亿美元的人。然而，市场在给地缘政治风险定价方面记录不佳。对于石油，他们难以评估实物贸易的复杂性。
loth /ləʊθ/ 不愿意的
second-guess /ˈsekənd ɡes/ 事后批评，预测
geopolitical /ˌdʒiːəʊpəˈlɪtɪkəl/ 地缘政治的
physical trade /ˈfɪzɪkəl treɪd/ 实物贸易
complexity /kəmˈpleksəti/ 复杂性
【第七段】
Even if a deal is in both countries’ interest, it could be hard to nail down. Each side may be underestimating the other. Mr Trump seems to think he holds all the cards. But Iran has endured long disruptions to its oil exports before, at the onset of Mr Trump’s “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign in 2018. Iran is not a democracy and the regime can survive while its people suffer. It has an incentive to hold out in the hope of a good offer for as long as it can. Mr Trump can resume the bombing, but that is as likely to delay a deal as catalyse one.
即使协议符合两国利益，也可能难以敲定。双方可能都在低估对方。特朗普先生似乎认为自己掌握所有王牌。但伊朗之前在2018年特朗普启动“极限施压”制裁行动时，就曾承受过长期的石油出口中断。伊朗不是民主国家，政权可以在人民受苦的同时生存下去。它有动机尽可能坚持下去，以期获得一个好的条件。特朗普可以恢复轰炸，但这同样可能推迟协议，而不是促成协议。
nail down /neɪl daʊn/ 敲定，明确
underestimate /ˌʌndərˈestɪmeɪt/ 低估
holds all the cards /həʊldz ɔːl ðə kɑːdz/ 掌握所有王牌
disruption /dɪsˈrʌpʃən/ 中断
catalyse /ˈkætəlaɪz/ 促成，催化
【第八段】
Likewise, with midterm elections looming in America, Iran’s leaders may think that Mr Trump cannot tolerate a high oil price. Yet Mr Trump is selfish. He may try to constrain price rises at home by limiting exports of refined products. The midterms are already lost, in the House at least, he may think. He is surely less bothered about the careers of Republican politicians than his own humiliation if he strikes a nuclear deal with Iran that looks worse than Barack Obama’s in 2015. His latest signal to Iran is that he is hunkering down for a long blockade.
同样，随着美国中期选举临近，伊朗领导人可能认为特朗普无法容忍高油价。然而特朗普是自私的。他可能试图通过限制精炼产品出口来控制国内油价上涨。他可能认为中期选举已经输掉了，至少在众议院是输掉了。与达成一项比巴拉克·奥巴马2015年协议更糟糕的伊朗核协议所带来的屈辱相比，他肯定不太关心共和党政客的职业生涯。他向伊朗发出的最新信号是，他正在为长期封锁做准备。
loom /luːm/ 逼近
tolerate /ˈtɒləreɪt/ 容忍
constrain /kənˈstreɪn/ 约束，限制
refined products /rɪˈfaɪnd ˈprɒdʌkts/ 精炼产品
hunker down /ˈhʌŋkə daʊn/ 准备长期坚持
【第九段】
Even if a deal is struck, the strait may not completely re-open. For one thing, the fearsome details of a nuclear pact will take months to negotiate. Now that Iran has discovered that it has leverage, it may be tempted to apply pressure with threats to close the strait again. And threats can lead to attacks. Perhaps Mr Trump will put the eradication of the nuclear programme before the complete reopening of the strait—after all, America is an energy exporter. Supposing that America agreed to let Iran treat Hormuz as a tollgate, what then?
即使达成了协议，海峡也可能不会完全重新开放。首先，核协议的复杂细节需要数月谈判。既然伊朗发现自己拥有筹码，它可能会试图通过威胁再次关闭海峡来施加压力。而威胁可能导致攻击。也许特朗普会把消除核计划置于完全重开海峡之前——毕竟，美国是能源出口国。假设美国同意让伊朗把霍尔木兹海峡当作收费站，那又怎样？
struck /strʌk/ 达成
fearsome /ˈfɪəsəm/ 可怕的，复杂的
leverage /ˈliːvərɪdʒ/ 筹码，影响力
eradication /ɪˌrædɪˈkeɪʃən/ 根除
tollgate /ˈtəʊlɡeɪt/ 收费站
【第十段】
And even if the strait is open in principle, getting fuel into fuel tanks in practice will remain vulnerable to many unknowable delays. You can expect a rush of oil as waiting tankers escape fully laden into the Indian Ocean. But for empty tankers to return to the Persian Gulf will be more complicated. Many will have taken up bookings on other routes. The strait will need demining, which could take months. Insurance rates could be prohibitive, so governments may need to organise a scheme to cover extreme risks. Shutting down production could have damaged oil wells. Restoring output will also take time. Partially mothballed refineries won’t immediately return to full capacity.
即使海峡原则上开放，将燃料实际注入油箱仍然容易受到许多不可预知的延误。你可以期待满载的等待油轮冲入印度洋，带来一波石油。但空油轮返回波斯湾将更加复杂。许多油轮已经在其他航线上接受了预订。海峡需要排雷，可能需要数月时间。保险费率可能高得令人望而却步，因此政府可能需要组织一个方案来覆盖极端风险。停产可能已损坏油井。恢复产量也需要时间。部分封存的炼油厂不会立即恢复满负荷生产。
in principle /ɪn ˈprɪnsəpəl/ 原则上
vulnerable /ˈvʌlnərəbəl/ 易受影响的
unknowable /ʌnˈnəʊəbəl/ 不可知的
demining /diːˈmaɪnɪŋ/ 排雷
prohibitive /prəˈhɪbɪtɪv/ 利润高
mothballed /ˈmɒθbɔːld/ 封存的
refinery /rɪˈfaɪnəri/ 炼油厂
capacity /kəˈpæsəti/ 产能
【第十一段】
The world is only starting to get to grips with what may lie ahead. Central banks may soon face the second inflationary shock of the decade, after the covid-19 pandemic. In Asia many governments have already taken drastic measures, such as shortening the working week. Europe’s governments will also have to change gear. So far they have focused on supporting consumer demand. They may have to deal with demand destruction—and, given the possibility of shortages of diesel and jet fuel, plan to protect food-delivery and vital services.
世界才刚刚开始正视未来可能发生的情况。各国央行可能很快面临新冠疫情后这十年来的第二次通胀冲击。在亚洲，许多政府已经采取了严厉措施，例如缩短工作周。欧洲各国政府也必须换挡。到目前为止，它们一直专注于支持消费者需求。它们可能不得不应对需求破坏——并且，考虑到柴油和航空燃油可能出现短缺，还要计划保护食品配送和重要服务。
get to grips with /ɡet tə ɡrɪps wɪð/ 认真应对
inflationary shock /ɪnˈfleɪʃənəri ʃɒk/ 通胀冲击
drastic /ˈdræstɪk/ 严厉的，剧烈的
change gear /tʃeɪndʒ ɡɪə/ 换挡，改变策略
demand destruction /dɪˈmɑːnd dɪsˈtrʌkʃən/ 需求破坏
【第十二段】
Bullish investors could be in for a nasty shock, too. The recovery from covid, Europe’s adaptation to the loss of most Russian gas and Mr Trump’s modernization of his tariffs have all led traders to trust that things always work themselves out. Amid strong corporate profits in America it may seem as if the world economy can bear any shock—and that Mr Trump will obviously back down before a catastrophe. The pain of a scenario that oil analysts have feared for decades is approaching. It will not be pretty.Get ready.
看涨的投资者也可能遭遇剧烈冲击。从新冠疫情中复苏、欧洲适应大部分俄罗斯天然气断供以及特朗普对其关税的现代化改革，都让交易商相信问题总会自行解决。在美国企业利润强劲的背景下，世界经济似乎能承受任何冲击——而且特朗普显然会在灾难面前退缩。石油分析师几十年来一直担心的痛苦情景正在逼近。这将不会好看。做好准备。
bullish /ˈbʊlɪʃ/ 看涨的
nasty /ˈnɑːsti/ 剧烈的，令人不快的
adaptation /ˌædæpˈteɪʃən/ 适应
back down /bæk daʊn/ 退缩，让步
catastrophe /kəˈtæstrəfi/ 大灾难
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