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AI算力驱动需求高涨 半导体扩产与国产替代提速近日全球晶圆厂集体开启新一轮涨价浪潮，先进制程报价上调最高15%。目前行业产能接近满载、供不应求，多家企业扩产计划正在加速推进。随着全球AI算力基础设施的扩张，先进制程与存储芯片的扩产潮正在重塑全球半导体供应链格局。2026年先进制程与存储芯片的扩产幅度有望大幅超越2025年。当前国产存储企业利润大超预期，且资本化进程加速推进，扩产的确定性与幅度大幅增强，半导体设备相关公司订单增速预期普遍上修，国内扩产浪潮为本土产业链提供了广阔的替代空间。当前全球AI算力基础设施的扩张成为半导体板块的重要驱动。全球主要云服务厂商大幅上调2026年资本开支，全球总规模逼近万亿美元大关，其中AI算力基础设施扩张尤为迅猛，有望转化为对半导体设备的海量需求，为设备厂商提供订单保障。先进制程方面，全球晶圆代工企业上调报价，产能利用率维持高位，通过扩产强化供应链韧性与战略卡位，已成为头部厂商的共识。与此同时，在摩尔定律放缓的背景下，先进封装成为提升芯片性能的关键路径，国内企业有望深度参与并受益于全球存储与先进制程的扩产周期。半导体关键设备、材料自主可控的意义重大，供应链国产化势在必行，关键设备制造环节的国产验证与导入机会或显著增加。随着国内存储企业上市进程的推进以及国家大基金三期的加速投放，政策催化与产业资本形成合力，或将进一步加速国产设备导入进程。
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