双语科普故事 | AI能否取代空中交通管制员?(下)

Can AI Replace Air Traffic Controllers?

"The system can be trained to look for exactly the same things that a controller is looking for," Taylor says, such as checking that a plane's tail has cleared a runway or scanning a 2.5-mile-long stretch of tarmac in real time. This digital tower, working from within existing analogue towers, could have much more high-fidelity views of the entire ATC operation, relying in part on arrays of fixed cameras that provide immediate views of the entire airfield. Human controllers working these digital towers would no longer have to continuously scan aeroplanes in all directions, and they could also track objects great distances away or those obscured by cloud cover. AI could provide an audible warning to controllers about troubling plane movements on the taxiway, and it could give pilots a warning, too.

泰勒说：“该系统可被训练来查找管制员关注的目标，例如检查飞机尾翼是否已离开跑道，或实时扫描2.5英里长的停机坪。”该数字塔在现有模拟塔内运行，可获取对整个空管运行的高清实时画面，部分依赖于固定摄像机阵列，这些阵列能提供机场全场域的即时画面。操作这些数字塔的人类管制员无需再全方位持续监视飞机，还能追踪远距离的飞机或被云层遮挡的飞机。人工智能可就滑行道上飞机的异常动态向管制员发出语音警报，同时也能为飞行员提供预警。

Digital towers could someday also be used to enhance an aging tower to handle increased traffic without rebuilding the facility, and they could reduce maintenance costs. In tests at Heathrow and at Singapore Changi Airport, Aimee has helped manage ground traffic and aircraft clearance, signalling a path forward for a possible hybrid human-machine collaboration. In London, the U.K.'s Civil Aviation Authority could perhaps give the AI system control over more functions once it's been proven safe, potentially improving the timeliness, efficiency, accuracy and safety of ATC.

未来，数字塔或许还能用于对老旧塔台进行升级改造，使其无需重建就能应对更大的航班流量，同时降低维护成本。在希思罗机场和新加坡樟宜机场的测试中，Aimee协助管理地面交通和航空器放行许可，为未来人机混合协作指明了方向。在伦敦，一旦该人工智能系统被证实安全可靠，英国民航局或许会授权它控制更多功能，从而提升空中交通管制的时效性、效率、精确性与安全性。

AI might also improve the Traffic Alert and Collision and Avoidance System (TCAS), a warning system used on aircraft throughout the world that tells pilots when to climb or descend. "TCAS is extremely successful but also very rigid," says James Kuchar, an assistant head of the Homeland Protection and Air Traffic Control Division at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Lincoln Laboratory.

人工智能还可能优化全球飞机通用的交通警报与防撞系统（TCAS），该系统用于告知飞行员何时爬升或下降，以避免碰撞。“TCAS极其成功，但也非常僵化”，麻省理工学院林肯实验室国土保护与空中交通管制部门助理主任詹姆斯·库查尔表示。

 "The system is safe but tends to give false alarms" to pilots and ATC workers when planes fly close together, Kuchar says, "which they do more often now than when it was designed in the 1980s."Airborne Collision Avoidance System X (ACAS X), the upgraded system being tested at Lincoln, is informed by AI and has been run through millions of simulated near misses. One goal of ACAS X is, in fact, to reduce false alarms. It can also warn planes to move laterally in the sky; TCAS can only direct planes to descend or climb.

库查尔说：“该系统是安全的，但当飞机靠得很近时，往往会向飞行员和空管工作人员发出误报。相较于20世纪80年代该系统设计之时，如今飞机靠得更近的情况更常出现。”机载防撞系统X（ACAS X）是正在林肯实验室测试的升级系统，基于人工智能，且已在数百万次模拟未遂事件中进行了测试。ACAS X的一个目标实际上是减少误报。它还能指示飞机在空中进行横向避让；而TCAS仅能指挥飞机上升或下降。

AI control would raise legal and ethical questions. Could AI be blamed for an accident? How risk-averse would an automated ATC system be? How risk-averse should it be? Some of the aviation experts I spoke with think policymakers have a duty to the flying public to establish a legal framework surrounding this emergent technology.

人工智能控制将引发法律和伦理问题。一旦发生事故，人工智能能否担责？自动化空中交通管制系统的风险规避程度会有多高？其风险规避程度应该设定在什么水平？我采访的部分航空专家认为，政策制定者有责任为航空乘客建立针对这项新兴技术的法律框架。

Assisted ATC also reveals the limits of AI and the risks that come with full automation. Aviation experts aren't confident that the benefits would outweigh possible new problems resulting from increased automation in the tower. For one thing, AI currently lacks the creativity, intuition or adaptability needed to deftly handle any emergency that deviates from historical flight data. Automated technology adds another layer of unpredictability to a system already mired in uncertainty. Forcing pilots and controllers to become more dependent on technology could erode their ability to make quick decisions. And increased digitisation of ATC systems could make them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats.

辅助空中交通管制还揭示了人工智能的局限性以及完全自动化带来的风险。航空专家不认为自动化带来的益处能超过塔台自动化程度提高可能带来的新问题。一方面，人工智能目前缺乏妥善处理任何偏离历史飞行数据的紧急情况所需的创造力、直觉或适应性。自动化技术给已经充满不确定性的系统增添了另一层变数。迫使飞行员和管制员更加依赖技术可能会削弱他们快速决策的能力。随着空管系统数字化程度日益提升，它们可能会更容易受到网络安全威胁。

"Automation is heralded as the solution, but it can actually make things worse," says John Leahy, a former chief pilot at British Airways and a member of the Royal Aeronautical Society, an international membership organisation of air safety experts. "The suggestion that computers can perform ATC tasks better than humans is a dangerous path."

英国航空公司前首席飞行员、国际航空安全专家组织——皇家航空学会的会员约翰·莱希表示：“自动化被誉为解决方案，但实际上它可能会让事情变得更糟。”他还指出：“认为计算机可以比人类更好地执行ATC任务的说法是一条危险的道路。”

Indeed, what happens if a human controller becomes over-reliant on a machine? "If you start depending on automation, you lower your guard," says Shem Malmquist, an instructor at the Florida Institute of Technology's College of Aeronautics and a Boeing 777 pilot. Malmquist is not against automation. He cites the controller-pilot data link communications system, which consists of text and audio technology that relays info from the ground to aircraft, as an example of a navigation tool that deftly combines human and machine intelligence. "This system is very useful for something routine because it lowers a controller's workload," Malmquist says.

事实上，倘若人类管制员过度依赖机器，会怎样呢？“如果你开始依赖自动化，你就会放松警惕，”佛罗里达理工学院航空学院讲师、波音777飞行员什姆·马尔姆奎斯特说。不过，马尔姆奎斯特并非反对自动化。他以控制器-飞行员数据链通信系统为例，该系统由文本和音频技术组成，能将信息从地面传递到飞机，是巧妙结合人类与机器智能的导航工具。“该系统在处理日常事务时极为实用，能减轻管制员的工作负担，”马尔姆奎斯特说。

Although AI has the potential to speed up operations, relieve short-staffed control towers and lead to safer skies, Malmquist says creative decisions can't be made with algorithms alone. For now, humans are still making the calls.

马尔姆奎斯特表示，尽管人工智能有潜力加快运行速度、缓解控制塔人员短缺并带来更安全的天空，但仅靠算法无法做出创造性的决策。目前，关键决策仍由人类来定。