In the AI era, how should Chinese chip companies respond

When ChatGPT set off a global model competition, when AI mobile phones, intelligent driving, and humanoid robots gradually entered daily life, when computing power has become the core indicator to measure the national scientific and technological strength, we are fully entering a new era with AI as the core driving force. Behind all these technological changes, it is inseparable from the chip size chips – it is the “heart” of AI, the “carrier” of computing power, and the key battlefield for China’s scientific and technological breakthrough. The large-scale implementation of AI is completely reconstructing the pattern of the chip industry, breaking the competition logic of traditional chips, and bringing unprecedented development opportunities for Chinese chip companies. This opportunity is no longer a simple market share expansion, but an all-round reconstruction from technical paths and market demands to industrial ecology, giving Chinese enterprises the opportunity to “change lanes and overtake”. First of all, the outbreak of AI computing power demand has spawned a diversified chip track and broke the monopoly pattern of the traditional chip market. In the past, the chip market has been dominated by general CPU and GPU for a long time, and international giants have formed an insurmountable barrier with technological accumulation and ecological advantages. However, the iteration of AI technology makes the computing power requirements present diversified characteristics: large model training requires ultra-high-precision and high parallel computing power Support, reasoning scenarios pay more attention to low latency, high concurrency and low energy consumption, while AI equipment at the edge requires miniaturization of chips and low power consumption. This differentiated demand promotes the transformation of the chip architecture from general to dedicated, and the rapid rise of special AI chips such as ASIC, NPU, and TPU has provided a new entry point for Chinese enterprises. In 2026, the global AI reasoning chip market reached 145 billion US dollars, accounting for 52% of the AI chip market. It was the first time to surpass training chips. This structural turning point has brought important opportunities for Chinese companies. The dependence of the CUDA ecology in the reasoning scenario is greatly reduced, and there is no need for complicated ecological adaptation, which gives the space for domestic chips to break through. Secondly, the dividends of the mature process market have provided a stable development foundation for Chinese chip companies. Global chip giants are making every effort to sprint 2nm and 3nm cutting-edge processes, and inadvertently give up a huge market for mature processes of 28nm and above. In the fields of automotive electronics, industrial control, consumer electronics and other fields, as well as the power management and interface chips required by AI peripheral equipment, most of the mature processes are sufficient. With its huge capacity and cost advantages, China has become the “best taker” of global spill orders.

Data shows that China’s production capacity in the mature process field has accounted for 38% of the world’s global production capacity, and it is expected to increase to 42% in 2026, accounting for more than 70% of the domestic chip market. In the first two months of 2026, China’s integrated circuit exports reached 43.3 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 72.6%, of which the contribution of memory chips is particularly prominent – giants such as Samsung and Hynix will The production capacity has turned to higher-profit AI with high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and China’s Changxin storage and Yangtze River storage precise card slots have filled the gap in the global market and raised the average unit price of export chips. The advantages of this mature process can not only bring stable revenue to enterprises, but also accumulate funds and experience for technology research and development, and lay the foundation for high-end chip breakthroughs. Furthermore, policy support and the huge domestic application market have provided a unique development environment for Chinese chip companies. The “15th Five-Year Plan” regards the semiconductor chip industry as a strategic highland related to the national movement, and clearly proposes that by 2030, 28 nanometers and above will become a success. The localization rate of the cooked process has sprinted by 60%, and the 3-5 nanometer cutting-edge process has achieved technological breakthroughs, and the self-sufficiency rate of high-end products such as AI chips has been significantly improved. The third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund has been implemented, and the central government’s research and development subsidies have reached up to 30%.

Behind the opportunity is the double challenge that Chinese chip companies cannot avoid: the outside is the all-round technical blockade of the United States, and the internal is the shortcoming constraints of core technology and industrial ecology. In the AI era, this challenge has become more severe, and a little carelessness may be excluded from the global industrial chain and fall into the dilemma of “passively being beaten”. The biggest external challenge comes from the US-led multilateral technology blockade, especially the MATCH Act, which was launched in April 2026, marking a comprehensive upgrade of the U.S. semiconductor containment strategy to China. This document, known as the “Stricter Chip Control and Control Act in History”, has built an all-round blocking network covering equipment, technology, services, and allies, pushing China’s semiconductor industry to a “no rear” living situation. The core control measures of the bill point directly to the lifeline of China’s chip industry: First, the scope of the control of semiconductor manufacturing equipment is comprehensively expanded, and all DUV immersion lithography machines, low temperature etching machines, thin film deposition equipment and other mature processes are critically designed. Incorporation of the ban will not only block the research and development of advanced processes, but also lock the expansion, upgrade and maintenance of mature processes of 28nm and above; , Changxin Storage, Huawei and other five companies and their affiliates are included in the list of “controlled facilities”, and completely cut off their equipment procurement, maintenance, software upgrade and other life cycle services; the third is to strengthen the “long arm jurisdiction” and force the Netherlands , Japan, South Korea and other American allies synchronously align the control standards, block the possibility of China’s access to key equipment and technologies through other countries, and also set up a “75% threshold mechanism”, trying to delay the process of China’s semiconductor autonomy for a long time. The impact brought by this full-chain encirclement and suppression is all-round: the expansion plan of domestic fabs is forced to shelve, and the production capacity of mature processes has increased. Into stagnation; the research and development process of SMIC’s 7nm process has slowed down significantly due to equipment cuts; the existing production line relies on imported equipment, once In the event of a failure or need to be upgraded, it will face the risk of “shutdown” – in 2025, China is the world’s largest market for ASML, accounting for 33% of its sales.

In the face of the opportunities and challenges in the AI era, Chinese chip companies cannot passively be beaten, and they cannot blindly follow the trend. , the four-dimensional strategy of technological attack, ecological coordination, and talent support”, break through in the blockade, grow in the competition, and gradually realize the leap from “following” to “running” and “leading”. Precisely locate the track, avoid homogeneous competition, and achieve “differentiated breakthrough”. The market demand of AI chips is diversified, and the performance, power consumption and cost requirements of chips in different scenarios are quite different. On the road, we should focus on its own advantages, identify the sub-tracks, create special products, and achieve “single breakthroughs and full bloom”. Second, focus on core technologies, increase investment in research and development, and break through the bottleneck of “stuck neck”. Technological innovation is the core competitiveness of chip companies, and it is also the fundamental way to deal with external blockades. Chinese chip companies should put research and development in the first place, increase investment in research and development, focus on EDA tools, advanced processes, core equipment, key materials and other short-board fields, focus on tackling the tough, and achieve a leap from “useable” to “easy to use”. In terms of advanced process research and development, we should rely on the existing DUV equipment to continuously optimize multiple exposure technologies, improve the production efficiency and yield of processes of 7nm and below, and shorten the gap with the international leading level. At the same time, we actively deploy new paradigms such as chiplets, heterogeneous integration, and advanced packaging, and make up for the shortcomings of the process through technological innovation – chiplet technology can make calculation secret The energy efficiency of the integrated chip is 10 times higher than that of the traditional architecture. These emerging technologies provide Chinese enterprises with a breakthrough path of “by bypassing the process limit”. In the field of EDA tools, it is necessary to strengthen industry-university-research coordination, cooperate with universities and scientific research institutions, increase investment in research and development of independent EDA tools for the whole process, focus on breaking through AI-EDA technology, promote the intelligent upgrade of EDA tools, and gradually break the monopoly of international giants. At the same time, actively adapt to the design needs of domestic chips, create a collaborative ecology of “EDA tools-chip design”, and improve the market adaptability of domestic EDA tools. In the field of core equipment and materials, it is necessary to strengthen the coordination with domestic equipment and material enterprises, and promote the maturity and mass production of domestic equipment and materials. Third, build an industrial ecology, strengthen collaborative cooperation, and enhance the overall competitiveness of the industry. The competition of the chip industry is essentially ecological competition. It is difficult for a single enterprise to deal with the competition of international giants, and it is also difficult to break through the technical blockade. Chinese chip companies need to strengthen the industrial chain. The synergy of tourism, to build a complete industrial ecology of “design-manufacturing-packing testing-equipment-material-applied”, form a joint force and develop together.

The arrival of the AI era has brought unprecedented development opportunities for China’s chip industry, and also brought unprecedented challenges. Although the technological blockade of the United States has brought short-term pains to Chinese chip companies, it has also forced Chinese companies to speed up the pace of independent innovation and push domestic replacement into an accelerated period. From the capacity advantages of mature processes, to the technological breakthroughs of special AI chips, from the strong support of policies, to the huge demand in the application market, Chinese chip companies have already had the foundation and confidence to break through. But we must also be soberly aware that China’s chip industry has a long way to go. The breakthrough of advanced process, the autonomy of EDA tools, and the improvement of industrial ecology require long-term investment and persistence, and it is impossible to achieve it overnight. There is no shortcut to the development of the chip industry, and enterprises need to be calm to engage in research and development, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain is needed, the continuous support of the government, and the persistence and dedication of generations of chip people.