经济学人精读|AI需要暂停吗?技术狂奔背后的安全焦虑

For all its five and a half years of existence, Anthropic has grappled with the tension between building artificial intelligence safely and making enough money to push forward the frontier of research. On September 12th that tension came to a head. Dario Amodei, the AI lab’s boss, called on the industry to “slow the pace” of AI development, just as his firm was believed to be on the verge of launching what may be the biggest initial public offering (IPO) of all time.

His call for a slowdown, supported by other bosses of AI labs, such as OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Elon Musk of SpaceXAI, followed a week in which angst about potentially catastrophic risks from AI broke out from the echo chambers of Silicon Valley to evening news broadcasts and dinnertable conversations. The explosion of worry was set off by warnings from researchers at Anthropic that there were credible fears within the company that AI could wipe out the humanity in a matter of years.

e.g. songs full of teenage angst 充满青少年焦虑的歌曲

catastrophic adj. 灾难性的；极糟糕的

e.g. The water shortage in this country is potentially catastrophic.

该国水资源的匮乏很可能是灾难性的。

wipe out 摧毁; 使灭绝

类似的表达还有: eliminate; eradicate; exterminate; annihilate; obliterate

It is unusual, to say the least, for people within a firm to air such doomsday warnings about their most cutting-edge products in public. It is doubly so when seeking to entice investors to back an IPO that reportedly aims to value the company at about $2trn—about as much as the ten highest previous tech flotations added together. If the warnings come true (and assuming that a few lawyers survive the calamity), Anthropic could face what David Sacks, Donald Trump’s former chief AI adviser, has called the “mother of all product liability lawsuits”.

至少可以说，一家公司内部的人公开发表如此末日般的警告，谈论的还是公司最前沿的产品，是非常不寻常的。而当这家公司还在寻求吸引投资者支持一项据报道旨在将公司估值定在约2万亿美元的 IPO 时，这种做法就更加不同寻常了——这一估值大约相当于此前规模最大的十宗科技公司 IPO 估值总和。如果这些警告最终成真（并且假设届时还有少数律师能够幸存下来），那么 Anthropic 可能会面临美国总统特朗普的前首席 AI 顾问大卫·萨克斯所称的“史上最严重的产品责任诉讼”。

doomsday n. 最后审判日，世界末日

entice v. 诱使，引诱    entice sb into doing sth  entice sb to do sth

e.g. The bargain prices are expected to entice customers away from other stores.

低廉的价格意在把顾客从其他商店吸引过来。

flotation n. 发行股份

calamity n. 灾难，灾祸

e.g. He described drugs as the greatest calamity of the age.

他形容毒品是这个时代最大的灾难。

That has led to speculation that, in order to deal with the fallout, Anthropic will at a minimum have to amend the confidential S-1 paperwork it has filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ahead of the IPO. More seriously, its underwriters could reduce the valuation they hope for, or even postpone the IPO. Mr Altman raised the stakes on September 12th by stating in an interview with Fortune magazine that OpenAI, which has also filed paperwork for an IPO, no longer plans to list this year. “Given everything happening with safety, this would right now be an ill-advised moment to go public,” he said.

这引发了外界的猜测：为了应对由此产生的后果，Anthropic 至少需要修改其在筹备 IPO 期间向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的机密 S-1 文件。更严重的是，承销商可能会下调他们期望的公司估值，甚至推迟 IPO。9月12日，奥尔特曼在接受《财富》杂志采访时进一步提高了事态的紧张程度。他表示，同样已经提交 IPO 文件的 OpenAI 不再计划于今年上市。他说：“考虑到目前围绕 AI 安全所发生的一切，现在显然不是一个适合上市的时机。”

speculation n. 推测，猜测；投机买卖

e.g. His private life is the subject of much speculation.

他的私生活引起诸多猜测。

e.g. She dismissed the newspaper reports as pure speculation. 

她说报纸上的报道毫无根据，纯属臆断。

fallout n. （核爆炸后的）放射性坠尘; 后果, 余波

e.g. Grundy lost his job in the fallout from the incident.

格伦迪因该事故丢了工作。

Mr Altman’s remarks were doubtless a cheeky dig at his arch-rival; OpenAI had previously let it be known that it was unlikely to be ready for an IPO until next year. And some investors in Anthropic, such as Brad Gerstner of Altimeter Capital, which co-led the lab’s latest funding round, were quick to throw their weight behind Mr Amodei and his firm. “Anthropic will IPO. The market knows how to price risk,” he posted on X.

毫无疑问，奥尔特曼的这番话是在带着几分调侃地挖苦自己的死对头；此前，OpenAI 已经放出消息称，公司可能要到明年才准备好进行 IPO。而 Anthropic 的一些投资者，例如 Altimeter Capital 的布拉德·格斯特纳——该公司曾与另一家机构共同领投 Anthropic 最近一轮融资——则迅速站出来支持阿莫代伊及其公司。他在 X 上发文称：“Anthropic 会上市。市场知道该如何给风险定价。”

a cheeky dig n. 带点调皮、玩笑意味的挖苦/讽刺/调侃。

arch-rival n.主要竞争对手，劲敌

throw one's weight behind 全力支持

How quickly the firm goes public, and at what price, depends on various factors. John Coffee, an expert in securities law at  Columbia Law School, says it is not unusual for companies to amend SEC filings before an IPO. This can be done quickly. He suggests that Anthropic, which has a governance structure designed to prioritise safety over profit, may have already sufficiently disclosed the risks in its S-1. Once the SEC signs its disclosures off, that limits the firm’s liability for securities fraud if disaster strikes, he says. Product liability is a different matter, but Anthropic is likely to have also disclosed the risks of lawsuits.

这家公司上市的速度有多快，以及最终会以什么价格上市，取决于多种因素。哥伦比亚大学法学院证券法专家约翰·科菲表示，公司在进行首次公开募股之前修改提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件，并不罕见，而且这一过程可以很快完成。他认为，Anthropic 的治理结构旨在将安全置于利润之上，因此该公司或许已经在其 S-1 注册声明中充分披露了相关风险。一旦 SEC 对其披露内容予以批准，他表示，如果日后发生灾难，这将在一定程度上限制公司因证券欺诈而承担的法律责任。产品责任是另一回事。不过，Anthropic 很可能也已经在文件中披露了面临诉讼的相关风险。

The market may force Anthropic’s hand, however. The firm will want to see how the furore affects the share prices of listed AI firms over the coming days, Mr Coffee says. If AI is under a “deep, dark cloud” and the sector as a whole suffers, that may prompt a serious rethink about the IPO. A modest fall in stock prices might not set the flotation back for long.

不过，市场可能会迫使 Anthropic 改变计划。科菲表示，该公司会希望观察接下来几天的风波将如何影响已上市 AI 企业的股价。如果 AI 行业正笼罩在一片“深重而阴暗的乌云”之下，整个行业的股价和市场表现都受到影响，那么这可能会促使 Anthropic 重新认真考虑 IPO 计划。如果股价只是出现小幅下跌，那么这或许不会让 IPO 推迟太久。

furore n. 群情激愤；骚动

e.g. His last novel created a furore among the critics.

他的最近一部小说在评论家中引起了轰动。

Supporters of Anthropic say Mr Amodei’s long history of warning about AI risks offers reassurance. In an essay published on September 12th, Anthropic’s boss said the triggers for the latest outpouring of concern were twofold. First, AI’s capabilities are compounding faster than the industry’s understanding of how to control them. That, he wrote, is primarily because of “AI’s growing ability to build the next generation of AI”. Second, several recent instances of rogueAI agents carrying out illegal hacks, such as the attack in July by swarms of OpenAI agents on Hugging Face, an AI platform, could be harbingers of greater dangers to come.

Anthropic 的支持者认为，阿莫代伊长期以来一直警告人们注意 AI 的风险，这一点本身就具有一定的安抚作用。9月12日，Anthropic 首席执行官在一篇发表的文章中表示，最近这轮担忧情绪集中爆发的原因主要有两个。首先，AI 的能力正在以越来越快的速度不断叠加和提升，而整个行业对于如何控制这些能力的理解却没有跟上。他写道，这主要是因为“AI 构建下一代 AI 的能力正在不断增强”。其次，近期已经出现了多起失控的 AI 智能体实施非法黑客攻击的事件。例如，今年7月，成群的 OpenAI AI 智能体曾对 AI 平台 Hugging Face 发起攻击。这类事件可能是未来更大风险即将出现的预兆。

e.g. The November air stung my cheeks, a harbinger of winter.

 11月的空气刺痛了我的脸颊，这是冬天要来的先兆。

Mr Amodei outlined several ways in which the industry could slow the pace of AI models’ development to ensure their safety. He said Anthropic would give third party evaluators the same access as its own employees to its models. They would then be able to verify safety practices and report incidents. Mr Altman posted that OpenAI would do the same.

阿莫代伊列举了几种行业可以采取的方式，通过放缓 AI 模型的开发速度来确保其安全性。他说，Anthropic 将给予第三方评估人员与公司内部员工同等程度的模型访问权限。这样一来，这些第三方评估人员就能够核查公司的安全措施，并报告相关事件。阿莫代伊的话发布后，阿尔特曼也发文表示，OpenAI 将采取同样的做法。

Mr Amodei also proposed regulation of frontier AI models in America. He called for voluntary co-operation between the labs until that happens, with a legal waiver from America’s government to prevent the discussions prompting antitrust concerns. He also pushed for a broad international regulatory regime, encompassing China.

阿莫代伊还提出，应当在美国对前沿 AI 模型进行监管。在相关监管措施出台之前，他呼吁各家 AI 实验室之间开展自愿合作，同时由美国政府提供一项法律豁免，以避免这些讨论引发反垄断方面的担忧。他还推动建立一个广泛的国际监管体系，并将中国纳入其中。

waiver n. （对合法权利或要求的）弃权, 弃权声明

encompass v. 包含，包括；包围，围绕

e.g. The job encompasses a wide range of responsibilities.

这项工作涉及的职责范围很广。

e.g. The fog soon encompassed the whole valley. 

大雾很快笼罩了整个山谷。

President Trump has shrugged off the AI safety worries, saying that outpacing China in building AI was the most important thing. “Whoever wins AI wins,” he told reporters on September 13th, while on a trip to Ireland. The only guardrail needed was a “High IQ!” president, he later wrote on Truth Social. Mr Sacks, his former adviser, also made light of the need for regulation: if Anthropic and OpenAI thought it important to slow down development, he said, they should do it themselves.

特朗普总统对 AI 安全方面的担忧不以为意，他表示，在 AI 开发领域超越中国才是最重要的事情。9月13日，他在爱尔兰访问期间告诉记者：“谁赢得 AI，谁就赢得一切。”随后，他又在 Truth Social 上写道，唯一需要的安全防护就是一位“高智商！”的总统。他的前顾问萨克斯也淡化了监管的必要性。**他说，如果 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 认为放慢 AI 发展速度很重要，那么它们自己就应该这样做。

shrugg off  对……不予理会，不把……当回事，轻描淡写地对待（批评、问题等）；摆脱，甩掉（困扰、疾病、负担等）；脱掉（衣物）

outpace v. （在速度上）超过；比…快

e.g.Demand is outpacing production. 需求正在超过生产。

guardrail 护栏，栏杆，防护栏

make light of  轻视，对……不屑一顾

An industry-wide slowdown along the lines Mr Amodei has proposed would not seriously hurt Anthropic’s commercial prospects. A pause might even benefit the bottom line. It could improve profits by reducing the amount the firm spends ontraining its next generation of models; and it could ease competition if open-sourcemodel-makers, who have been winning business from Anthropic and OpenAI by providing companies with cheaper models, would also have to slow down.

prospect n. 前景，前途；可能性，希望

e.g. The prospect of becoming a father filled him with alarm. 

一想到将为人父他就满怀忧思

如果按照阿莫代伊提出的设想，让整个行业放缓发展速度，那么这并不会严重损害 Anthropic 的商业前景。暂停一下甚至可能对公司的利润有利。一方面，这可以减少公司在训练下一代模型上的投入，从而提高利润；另一方面，如果那些通过提供价格更低的模型、一直在从 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 手中争夺企业客户的开源模型厂商也不得不放慢发展速度，那么行业竞争也可能随之减弱。

But potential IPO investors, many of whom are carried away by enthusiasm for AI, should not take the latest safety panic lightly. If it adds to fears, widespread in theWest (less so in Asia), that AI will wipe out jobs, drive up electricity prices and widen the gap between haves and have-nots, it may increase political pressure to temporarily halt development and put a freeze on data-centre construction. Even those not worried about AI models annihilating humanity should worry about anxious politicians trying to annihilate AI.

但是，那些潜在的 IPO 投资者——其中许多人已经被对人工智能的热情冲昏了头脑——不应该轻视最近这场围绕 AI 安全问题的恐慌。如果这场恐慌进一步加剧了西方社会（在亚洲则不那么明显）普遍存在的一些担忧——即 AI 将会取代就业岗位、推高电价，并扩大富人与穷人之间的差距——那么它可能会增加要求暂时停止 AI 发展以及冻结数据中心建设的政治压力。即使那些并不担心 AI 模型会毁灭人类的人，也应该担心：那些焦虑的政治人士可能会试图毁掉 AI。

halt n. 阻止, 暂停  v. （使）停止，停下

e.g. She walked towards him and then halted.

她向他走去，然后停下。

e.g. Strikes have led to a halt in production. 罢工已经使生产陷于停顿。

put a freeze on sth 冻结某事，使某事暂停

annihilate v. 彻底击败；消灭，歼灭

e.g. The human race has enough weapons to annihilate itself.

人类有足够的武器灭绝自己。