国外权威期刊目录JAERE·环境与资源经济学家协会杂志(总第638期)

Katheline Schubert,Aude Pommeret, and Francesco Ricci

面对政治上对高效碳定价的反对，气候政策转向替代工具，这些工具伴随着福利和财政可接受性的成本。为评估这些成本，本研究探讨了将恒定碳税与对无碳发电和储能补贴相结合的次优政策。我们通过一个以化石能源和清洁能源为核心的动态化能源转型模型，以及碳预算，我们展示了碳税越低，碳定价差距越大，满足碳预算所需的补贴也越多。可能需要过度积累清洁资本来挤压化石燃料。根据欧洲能源市场的校准，可接受成本高达福利的2.6%，预算赤字相当于电力消费现值的56%。这表明依赖绿色补贴进行能源转型可能并不明智。

Paul Stainier,Manisha Shah, and Alan Barreca

We examine the impact of temperature during the growing season on household diets in the subsequent year in rural India, a setting with a high prevalence of small family farms. High growing-season temperatures reduce crop yields, which would presumably reduce incomes and home-grown food for consumption. However, household adaptation could mitigate how the reductions in yields affect diets. We find that heat increases the number of strongly undernourished households in the subsequent year, as measured by the consumption of calories, iron, zinc, thiamine, and niacin. We also find suggestive evidence that households adapt to heat-induced losses of home-grown crops by purchasing more food.

我们考察了印度农村生长季节温度对次年家庭饮食的影响，该农村地区小型家庭农场较为普遍。高生长季节的气温会降低作物产量，这可能会减少收入和可供消费的本土食品。然而，家庭适应可以减轻产量下降对饮食的影响。我们发现，热量会增加接下来一年严重营养不良家庭的数量，这些数据包括热量、铁、锌、硫胺素和烟酸的摄入量。我们还发现有迹象表明，家庭通过购买更多食物来适应因高温导致的本土作物损失。

Connor R. Forsythe,Akshaya Jha,Jeremy J. Michalek, and Kate S. Whitefoot

Many transportation policies indirectly affect travel and resulting externalities by inducing changes in vehicle scrappage rates. We leverage the staggered removal of state-level safety inspection programs across the United States to estimate the effects of policy-induced changes in fleet size on travel and fuel use. Using a first-stage difference-in-differences model, we estimate that the removal of safety inspection requirements causes a 5% increase in fleet size on average. Using a second-stage instrumental variables framework robust to weak instruments, we can reject fleet-size elasticities of fleet travel distance above 0.43 and fleet-size elasticities of fleet gasoline consumption above 0.10. Our estimates suggest that assuming fleet-size elasticities of 1 would overestimate the total national externality costs of removing safety inspections by at least 150%, amounting to a cumulative national aggregate error from 1970 to 2017 exceeding $90 billion.

许多交通政策通过引发车辆报废率的变化，间接影响出行及其带来的外部性。我们利用美国各州分批取消安全检查项目，来估算政策引发的车队规模变化对旅行和燃料使用的影响。利用第一阶段差中差值模型，我们估计取消安全检查要求平均使车队规模增加5%。利用对弱仪器具有鲁棒性的第二阶段工具变量框架，我们可以排除车队行进距离超过0.43的车队规模弹性和超过0.10的车队规模弹性。我们的估计表明，假设舰队规模弹性为1，将高估取消安全检查的国家外部性总成本至少150%，导致1970年至2017年累计国家总误差超过900亿美元。

Benjamin A. Jones,Jingjing Wang, and John Fleck

Globally, many inland lakes in arid regions are shrinking due to reduced water runoff from irrigated agriculture. As inland lakes contract, playa dust emissions create air quality problems with associated negative human health effects. Yet, policy often considers lake shrinkage and health problems separate from water scarcity and agricultural production. This leads to inefficient outcomes. To address this, an original dynamic model is developed to study water transfer trade-offs between an agricultural sector and an inland lake. The model is applied to the Colorado River’s Imperial Irrigation District (IID) and the Salton Sea, the largest inland lake in California. Results indicate that direct water leasing is capable of generating economic benefits in excess of lost agricultural profit. In particular, maintaining historical or lower Salton Sea inflows would result in excess regional health damages, and generating sea inflows above historical levels through water leasing is economically supported on a health benefits basis.

全球范围内，由于灌溉农业水流减少，许多干旱地区的内陆湖泊正在缩小。随着内陆湖泊的收缩，沙滩尘埃排放会造成空气质量问题，并带来负面的人体健康影响。然而，政策常常将湖泊缩水和健康问题与水资源短缺和农业生产分开考虑。这导致了效率低下的结果。为此，开发了一个原创的动态模型，研究农业部门与内陆湖泊之间的水资源转移权衡。该模型被应用于科罗拉多河的帝国灌溉区（IID）和加利福尼亚最大的内陆湖泊索尔顿海。结果表明，直接水租赁能够创造超过农业利润损失的经济利益。特别是，维持历史或较低的萨尔顿海水流量将导致区域健康过度损害，而通过水租赁创造超过历史水平的海水流入则在健康利益基础上得到经济支持。

Benjamin Hattemer and Ismael Moreno-Martinez

This study provides novel causal estimates of the effect of air pollution on workplace safety using data on the universe of work accidents reported in Spain (2010–19). We focus on a near-worldwide natural source of air pollution: mineral dust precipitation. The results indicate that a day of dust precipitation increases work accidents by 1.4%. Our estimates reveal that dust events’ overall burden on workplace safety are of the same order of magnitude as those of high temperatures. Impacts are widespread, spanning most worker and accident characteristics, consistent with dust pollution inducing human error across a broad range of tasks and activities. We find significant effects for workers along most of the wage distribution, though we estimate null impacts for those in the top wage quintile. Dust precipitation induces occupational injuries both mild and severe, including those requiring over two months of sick leave.

本研究利用西班牙（2010–19年）报告的工伤总数数据，提供了空气污染对工作场所安全影响的新因果估计。我们关注全球范围内的自然空气污染源：矿物尘埃沉降。结果显示，一天的尘埃降水会使工伤事故增加1.4%。我们的估算显示，尘埃事件对工作场所安全的整体负担与高温相当。影响广泛，涵盖大多数工人和事故特征，与尘埃污染导致人为错误在广泛任务和活动中相符。我们发现工人在工资分布的大部分范围内都有显著影响，尽管我们估计对最高工资五分位的工人影响为零。尘埃降水会导致轻重的职业伤害，包括需要请超过两个月病假的伤患。

Jan K. Brueckner,Matthew E. Kahn, and Jerry Nickelsburg

The durability of the transportation capital stock slows down the pace of decarbonization since newer vintages feature cutting-edge technology. If older vintages were to be retired sooner, the social cost of travel would decline. This study analyzes and explores the viability of a potential cash for clunkers program for the airline industry, which would help to hasten decarbonization of aviation. Focusing on US aviation, our estimation and calculations show that airlines can be induced to scrap rather than sell older planes upon retirement with a payment that is less than the forgone carbon damage. The marginal value of a dollar of public funds used in the program is 8.67, a large value compared to other climate programs. Our estimates are highly conservative because they ignore non-CO2 aviation emissions while using relatively low carbon cost of $51.

交通资本存量的耐用性减缓了脱碳进程，因为新年份采用了尖端技术。如果老年份的年份能更早退役，出行的社会成本将会下降。本研究分析并探讨了航空业潜在的“以旧换新”项目的可行性，该项目将有助于加速航空业的脱碳。聚焦美国航空业，我们的估算和计算显示，航空公司在退役时可能会被劝说报废而非出售旧飞机，而非出售，而支付的赔偿金额低于放弃的碳损失。该项目所用公共资金的边际价值为 8.67 美元，与其他气候项目相比是一个较高的价值。我们的估算非常保守，因为它们忽略了非二氧化碳的航空排放，同时使用了相对较低的 51 美元碳成本。

Nicole Karwowski and Marin Skidmore

Billions of dollars have been dedicated to mitigating nonpoint source pollution from US agriculture. Wetlands provide an ex post natural solution by filtering sediments and excess nutrients from the landscape. Quantifying the impact of wetland easements in the Wetland Reserve Program (WRP) and Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP) on water quality is critical for optimal fund allocation for nonpoint source pollution abatement. We causally identify whether newly restored wetlands reduce nitrogen and phosphorus loads at the subwatershed level in the Mississippi River Basin. Results show that wetland easements reduce ammonia and total Kjeldahl nitrogen concentrations in the local subwatershed as well as downstream. A short-term increase in local phosphorus immediately following restoration likely reflects soil disturbance. While wetlands have no significant long-term impact on local phosphorus levels, downstream reductions are observed. We estimate that this federal investment in natural infrastructure leads to lower treatment costs for local water systems.

数十亿美元已投入减缓美国农业的非点源污染。湿地通过过滤景观中的沉积物和过量养分，提供了一种事后自然的解决方案。量化湿地地役权对湿地保护区计划（WRP）和农业保护地役权计划（ACEP）对水质的影响，对于最佳资金分配用于非点源污染减缓至关重要。我们因果地确定新恢复的湿地是否能在密西西比河流域的亚流域水平减少氮和磷负荷。结果显示，湿地地役权在当地子流域及下游减少氨和凯尔达尔氮总浓度。恢复后局部磷的短期上升很可能反映了土壤扰动。虽然湿地对当地磷水平的长期影响不显著，但下游磷含量会减少。我们估计，联邦对自然基础设施的投资降低了当地水系统的处理成本。

编辑：史绍杉

审核：马慧芳

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