ARTICLE · 1228421
AI 助手 重塑数字经济
AI-powered personal assistants could reshape the digital economy
But they will first have to prove they are safe for users and helpful for businesses
Illustration: Fortunate Joaquin
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Silicon Valley has long dreamed of building a digital assistant capable enough to rid users of many of the tedious personal tasks that gobble up time and attention. Fictional representations, such as J.A.R.V.I.S. (Just a Rather Very Intelligent System) in the “Iron Man” films, set expectations high. In 2010 Apple, the iPhone-maker, acquired Siri, one such aide. It turned out to be disappointingly moronic.
硅谷长期以来一直怀揣着一个梦想：打造出一款功能强大的数字助理，帮助用户摆脱那些既耗时又分散精力的琐碎个人事务。诸如电影《钢铁侠》中出现的“贾维斯”（J.A.R.V.I.S.，意为“相当智能的系统”）这类虚构形象，将人们的期望值拉得很高。2010年，iPhone制造商苹果公司收购了Siri，一款旨在实现上述目标的数字助理。然而，它的表现却极其“愚笨”，令人大失所望。
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Now, amid the current wave of investment in artificial intelligence, the era of personal AI agents may at last have arrived. In the past two months Meta, a social-media giant, and Instinct, a startup, have released two such bots to great fanfare.
Instinct’s assistants, which users contact through Apple’s iMessage service or Meta’s WhatsApp, are already checking users into flights, hunting down sold-out concert tickets and arranging dinners with friends, among much else. (Your correspondent uses Instinct to update his calendar with earnings calls as they are announced.)
Muse, Meta’s offering, has similar capabilities, but can be accessed through WhatsApp, a web browser, a mobile app—or, from later this year, the company’s smart glasses.
如今，在人工智能投资热潮之下，个人AI智能体时代或许终于到来了。在过去两个月里，社交媒体巨头Meta和初创公司Instinct分别推出了此类智能体，引发了广泛关注。
用户可以通过苹果的iMessage服务或Meta旗下的WhatsApp与Instinct的智能助手进行交互；这些助手能够协助完成多种任务，例如办理航班值机、搜寻已售罄的音乐会门票，以及安排与朋友的聚餐等。（笔者本人就利用Instinct来更新日程表，将各类财报电话会议的时间自动录入其中。）
Meta推出的Muse也具备类似功能，用户可通过WhatsApp、网页浏览器、移动应用，甚至（从今年晚些时候起）通过该公司的智能眼镜来使用它。
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The big difference from earlier generations of digital assistants, explains M.G. Siegler, an investor and blogger, is that these new bots can work proactively, rather than reacting only to what users explicitly ask for. Instinct “really just works in the way I believe we all want AI to act”, says Noah Shinn, the startup’s 24-year-old founder.
投资者兼博主 M.G. Siegler 解释道，与早期数字助理相比，这些新一代智能体的一个重大区别在于它们能够主动采取行动，而不仅仅是被动响应用户的明确指令。这家初创公司的创始人、24 岁的 Noah Shinn 表示，Instinct “确实以一种我认为我们大家都希望人工智能所应有的方式在运作”。
Uptake is soaring, so much so that Mr Shinn reckons “in a few years every user in the world that has an internet connection is going to have access to a product like Instinct.” That may well prove true. Before then, however, the companies developing personal agents will have to overcome a variety of hurdles to more widespread adoption, including concerns over security and reliability and the reluctance of some big businesses to allow the tools to interact with their systems.
用户采用率正在迅速飙升，以至于辛恩（Mr. Shinn）认为：“几年内，全球每一位能够上网的用户，都将有机会使用像‘Instinct’这类产品。”这一预测很可能会成为现实。然而在此之前，那些开发个人智能代理（personal agents）的公司必须克服多重障碍，才能实现更广泛的普及；这些障碍包括人们对安全性和可靠性的担忧，以及一些大型企业不愿允许此类工具与其系统进行交互的态度。
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Instinct and Meta have pursued very different approaches to attracting users, but both have been wildly successful so far. In Instinct’s case, users must be invited by a friend or hand-picked by the company from a waitlist. Even so, the number of users has been growing by about 10% daily. Simplicity keeps them coming back: around half of people who have signed up to Instinct continue using it at least once a week after the first month, according to the company. Giving the agent an instruction is as simple as writing a short text; it will then reply with updates on its progress.
Instinct 和 Meta 在吸引用户方面采取了截然不同的策略，但迄今为止，两者都取得了巨大的成功。以 Instinct 为例，用户必须经由朋友邀请，或是从候补名单中被公司亲自选中，才能加入。即便如此，其用户数量仍以每天约 10% 的速度增长。简洁的体验让用户不断回访：据该公司称，在注册 Instinct 的用户中，约有一半人在使用满一个月后，仍会保持每周至少使用一次的频率。向智能体（agent）下达指令就像撰写一条短消息一样简单；随后，它便会反馈任务的进展情况。
If Instinct is the private party taking place behind a velvet rope, Muse is the open-invite rave anyone can partake in (so long as they live in America or Canada). By all accounts, the party is heaving—and people are lingering, too. More than 10m people have downloaded the Muse app since its debut a little over a month ago, according to Sensor Tower, a data provider. ChatGPT, the hit chatbot from OpenAI that precipitated the AI boom, had only 3.7m downloads of its mobile app in the same timeframe after its release, a few months after the web version was first unveiled. Muse is retaining users at about the same rates as ChatGPT, too.
如果说“Instinct”是设在天鹅绒绳索后的私密派对，那么“Muse”就是一场向所有人敞开大门的狂欢（只要身处美国或加拿大即可参与）。据各方反馈，这场“派对”人气火爆，参与者们也乐在其中，流连忘返。据数据提供商Sensor Tower统计，自一个多月前上线以来，Muse应用（App）的下载量已超过1000万次。作为引发人工智能热潮的“功臣”，OpenAI旗下的热门聊天机器人ChatGPT，其移动应用在发布后的同一时间段内，下载量仅为370万次（注：ChatGPT的网页版发布数月后，其移动应用才正式推出）。此外，Muse的用户留存率也与ChatGPT旗鼓相当。
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Persuading partygoers to expose their data, however, is not always easy. Personal agents need private information to reach their potential: without access to a calendar or a credit card they are little more than a glorified chatbot. Some in techland fear that the bots will leave users vulnerable to new threats such as prompt injections, where an attacker sneaks text to an AI through a website’s computer code and deceives it into misbehaving.
然而，要说服聚会参与者交出个人数据并非易事。个人智能助理需要获取私密信息才能充分发挥其潜能——如果无法访问日历或信用卡信息，它们充其量不过是功能更高级的聊天机器人罢了。科技界的一些人士担心，这些机器人可能会让用户面临新的威胁，例如“提示词注入”（prompt injection）攻击；在这种攻击中，攻击者通过网站的计算机代码向人工智能植入特定文本，从而诱骗其做出不当行为。
The companies seem to be taking these concerns seriously. Meta assigns a private computer for each Muse user to hold their data and operate their assistant. It has also taught Muse various ways to resist prompt injections, though some security researchers reckon it remains susceptible to malicious instructions. Instinct has revealed less to the public about its cyber-security measures, but Mr Shinn says the service is designed around the principle that users “should always be in control of their data”.
这些公司似乎正认真对待相关顾虑。Meta 为每位 Muse 用户分配了一台专用计算机，用于存储其数据并运行其智能助手。此外，Meta 还让 Muse 掌握了多种抵御“提示词注入”（prompt injection）的方法，尽管一些安全研究人员认为，它仍有可能受到恶意指令的影响。Instinct 对外披露的网络安全措施较少，但 Shinn 先生表示，该服务的设计核心在于确保用户“始终能够掌控自己的数据”。
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On top of that are concerns that personal agents could wreak havoc out of sheer stupidity. Meta has admitted that Muse will make mistakes, and has put a number of guardrails in place to minimise the potential damage when it does. Even so, some users may baulk at handing over their credit-card details until they are confident their agent will handle them wisely.
此外，人们还担心个人智能代理可能会因“愚蠢”而引发严重问题。Meta公司已承认Muse难免会出错，并为此设置了多重防护机制，旨在将出错时可能造成的损害降至最低。即便如此，在确信自己的智能代理能够妥善处理信用卡信息之前，一些用户恐怕仍会不愿提供这些敏感资料。
Prolonged exposure appears to build that trust. About 40% of Instinct users connect a credit card within three weeks, according to the company. Instinct and Meta also work with Stripe, a payments company, to offer a digital wallet that allows users to make purchases without handing over their banking details directly, which may reassure some.
长时间的接触似乎有助于建立这种信任。据该公司称，约 40% 的 Instinct 用户会在三周内绑定信用卡。此外，Instinct 和 Meta 还与支付公司 Stripe 合作，提供了一种数字钱包；用户通过该钱包进行消费时，无需直接提供银行账户信息，这或许能让部分用户感到更加安心。
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The other big challenge for bot-builders is to persuade other businesses to welcome their agents. Some appear happy to do so. Shopify, a software platform for e-commerce businesses, is working to make it easier for Instinct and Muse to buy from its network of vendors. Meta is also working with Walmart, America’s biggest retailer; Instacart, a grocery-delivery service; and Expedia, a travel-booking site.
对于聊天机器人开发者而言，另一个重大挑战在于如何说服其他企业接纳他们的智能代理。一些企业对此持欢迎态度。例如，电子商务软件平台 Shopify 正在采取措施，旨在让“Instinct”和“Muse”能够更轻松地从其供应商网络中进行采购。此外，Meta 也在与多家企业开展合作，包括美国最大的零售商沃尔玛（Walmart）、杂货配送服务平台 Instacart，以及旅游预订网站 Expedia。
But other companies remain unconvinced. Amazon, for instance, is currently off limits to both Instinct and Muse. The e-emporium generates a good chunk of its profit from showing users ads, and currently has little need for the extra traffic that might come its way via personal agents. Amazon has also complained that Meta failed to give it a heads up about Muse’s release.
但其他公司对此并不买账。以亚马逊为例，Instinct 和 Muse 目前都无法接入该平台。这家电商巨头很大一部分利润来自向用户展示广告，因此对于通过个人智能代理可能带来的额外流量，它目前并无太大需求。此外，亚马逊还抱怨称，Meta 在发布 Muse 之前并未提前告知他们。
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Some Silicon Valley bosses say that they are waiting to see how the technology develops before opening their systems to personal agents. In the meantime, the bot-builders are busily trying to win them over. Mr Shinn gives the example of restaurant-booking companies, some of which Instinct has won over by agreeing to prevent its agents from booking vast numbers of reservations, only to cancel all but one. Even Andy Jassy, Amazon’s boss, appears to be keeping an open mind about the future, saying on a recent earnings call he is “very hopeful” his company will eventually reach a fair deal that lifts the ban on agents.
硅谷的一些企业高管表示，在向“个人代理”开放自家系统之前，他们打算先观望一下相关技术的发展情况。与此同时，开发这些智能代理程序的公司正忙于争取他们的认可。辛恩（Mr. Shinn）以餐厅预订平台为例——Instinct公司通过承诺限制其代理程序进行大规模预订（即避免出现“大量预订后仅保留一项、其余全部取消”的情况），成功赢得了其中一些平台的合作。就连亚马逊首席执行官安迪·贾西（Andy Jassy）对未来也持开放态度；他在最近的一次财报电话会议上表示，他“非常乐观地认为”，亚马逊最终能够达成一项公平的协议，从而解除针对代理程序的禁令。
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Such agreements will be necessary if personal agents are to become a viable business. Mr Zuckerberg has said that he envisages Muse will earn its keep from a combination of subscriptions and a cut of the transactions it facilitates. Mr Shinn reckons that most online spending will eventually flow through personal agents.
若要让“个人代理”成为一种可行的商业模式，此类协议必不可少。扎克伯格曾表示，他设想 Muse 的收入来源将包括订阅费，以及从其促成的交易中抽取一定比例的佣金。辛恩（Mr. Shinn）则认为，未来绝大多数的在线消费最终都将通过“个人代理”来完成。
Which bot-builder wins the biggest share of the business is still up for grabs. Instinct has raised $1.4bn to date, according to PitchBook, a data provider. That is a tidy sum for a one-year-old startup, but a pittance compared to what Meta has at its disposal. OpenAI and Google, maker of the Gemini models, both offer their own personal agents. Although these are currently pitched more for business than consumer use, they could expand their focus. Airbnb, a short-term rental platform that wants to make itself into a one-stop-shop for all manner of experiences, has also said that it plans to launch a personal agent next year.
究竟哪家智能体（bot）构建平台能占据最大的市场份额，目前尚无定论。据数据提供商 PitchBook 显示，Instinct 迄今已筹集了 14 亿美元。对于一家成立仅一年的初创公司而言，这笔资金相当可观，但与 Meta 所掌握的资源相比，却显得微不足道。OpenAI 和开发了 Gemini 模型系列的谷歌，也都推出了各自的个人智能体。尽管这些产品目前主要面向企业而非个人消费者，但它们未来可能会拓展应用范围。短租平台 Airbnb 也表示计划于明年推出个人智能体；该公司正致力于将自身打造成为涵盖各类体验的一站式服务平台。
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Then there is Apple, which in June gave Siri a big makeover. Although the new assistant is widely viewed as an improvement on its brainless predecessor, it lacks most of the autonomous capabilities of the personal agents that are now winning over consumers. Perhaps the iPhone-maker should consider messaging Instinct. ■
再来看看苹果公司——他们在6月份对Siri进行了重大升级。尽管人们普遍认为这个新版助手比其前身（那个“没脑子”的旧版）有所进步，但它仍缺乏如今备受消费者青睐的各类个人智能代理所具备的多数自主能力。或许，这家iPhone制造商该考虑向Instinct取取经了。■
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