【中英双语】红果补贴退潮,火了半年的 AI 短剧风口停了?

“The cancellation of minimum guarantees for AI-generated realistic dramas by Redguo has impacted us. We sensed it might happen, just not so soon,” said a senior executive at a leading comic drama company. The boom in AI realistic dramas seems to have been shorter than expected. From late last year to early this year, major internet firms including ByteDance, Tencent and Baidu launched standalone comic drama apps with generous support policies. Fueled by capital and traffic, comic dramas surged while live-action short dramas declined, forcing many live-action studios to shut down, downsize or pivot to comic dramas.

“红果取消 AI 仿真人剧保底，对我们有影响，我们对此早有预感，只是没想到这么快”，一位头部漫剧公司负责人如此说道。AI 仿真人剧的风口似乎比想象中要短。从去年底到今年初，字节、腾讯、百度等头部互联网公司纷纷推出独立漫剧 App，祭出优厚扶持政策。真金白银与流量齐砸漫剧赛道，漫剧强势崛起，真人短剧式微，不少真人短剧公司倒闭、裁员或转型漫剧。

Recently, market rumors claimed that “Redguo Short Drama has canceled minimum guarantees for AI realistic dramas. All scripts reviewed after April 27 will no longer have guarantees, shifting to a pure revenue-sharing model with a 20% split.” While Redguo denied a full cancellation, stating some scripts still retain guarantees, multiple industry insiders confirmed the policy change. After Redguo previously axed guarantees for live-action dramas, that market nearly halved. Now, the removal of AI drama guarantees raises questions about the next industry shakeout.

日前有消息称，“红果短剧取消 AI 仿真人剧本保底，4 月 27 日之后审核的剧本全部取消保底，改为纯分成，分成比例 20%”。红果方面回应称该说法不实，强调部分剧本仍保留保底，但多位从业者证实取消属实。此前红果取消真人短剧保底后，真人市场规模近乎腰斩；此番 AI 短剧保底退坡，行业将迎来新一轮洗牌。

Redguo’s vague statement on retained guarantees leaves the industry uncertain. Likely only top studios and writers have bargaining power, while most small- to mid-sized firms must accept the sudden market shift. As a leading platform, Redguo’s decisions carry widespread impact. One executive noted their annual contract with Redguo for AI dramas saw reduced guaranteed payments following the policy adjustment. On the writer side, some have already signed zero-guarantee deals.

红果虽称 “部分剧本仍保留保底”，但保留比例语焉不详。业内普遍认为，仅头部制作方与核心编剧具备议价权，中小公司只能被动接受市场骤变。作为短剧赛道头部平台，红果的政策调整牵一发动全身。某漫剧承制公司员工透露，其与红果签订的 AI 真人剧年框保底价格随之下调；编剧端亦有消息称，已有人签约 0 保底合同。

The impact of removing guarantees for AI realistic dramas is substantial. By May, daily ad spend on AI realistic dramas exceeded 100 million yuan. Data from Shenzhen Chuangliang shows daily spending rose from 15 million yuan in January–February 2026 (5% on AI dramas) to 60–80 million in March (35% on AI), 120 million in April (50% on AI), and 160 million in May (70% on AI). Live-action dramas, once dominant with over 70% of spend in January–February, now account for just over 30%.

AI 仿真人剧取消保底，影响面巨大。数据显示，截至 5 月，AI 仿真人剧日消耗突破 1 亿元。深圳创量数据显示，2026 年 1-2 月漫剧日投放消耗约 1500 万元（AI 真人剧占 5%），3 月升至 6000-8000 万元（占 35%），4 月达 1.2 亿元（占 50%），5 月达 1.6 亿元（占 70%）。真人短剧投放占比从年初的 70% 以上，骤降至如今的 30% 出头。

The market is now clearly led by AI realistic dramas. Though hit rates for billion-view AI dramas are under 1% (lower than live-action), they capture 70–80% of ad spend. Top productions see over 40 million yuan in spend, while most fall in the 3–5 million range. High-spend hits deliver ROI of 1.6–1.8, with exceptional performers unbounded. With Redguo shifting support back to live-action, comic drama studios are moving to Douyin, Kuaishou and other platforms for initial releases.

短剧市场已由 AI 真人漫剧主导。深圳创量市场负责人 Celia 表示，AI 真人漫剧播放量破亿的爆款率不足 1%，低于真人短剧，却占据 70%-80% 的投流份额。单部投流金额分化明显：极少数爆款消耗超 4000 万，千万级项目较少，300 万 - 500 万区间项目居多。ROI 方面，400 万以上高消耗爆款可达 1.6-1.8，现象级爆款上限更高。如今红果转向扶持真人实拍，漫剧公司纷纷转投抖音、快手等平台首轮投放。

The pendulum has swung from live-action to comic dramas—and back. Recently, the National Radio and Television Administration launched a “Quality Micro-Drama Creation & Promotion Plan,” with six major platforms (Douyin, Tencent, Mango TV, Migu, Kuaishou, Dianzhong) committing at least 6 billion yuan to support high-quality live-action dramas. Redguo’s editor-in-chief Le Li announced Douyin’s 2026 guaranteed budget for live-action dramas would exceed 1.5 billion yuan, with per-drama guarantees up about 60% year-over-year.

短剧风口从真人吹向漫剧，如今又从漫剧吹回真人。日前，国家广电总局启动 “微短剧精品创作传播计划”，抖音、腾讯、芒果 TV、咪咕、快手、点众六大平台合计投入至少 60 亿元扶持优质真人短剧。红果短剧总编辑乐力也宣布，2026 年抖音对真人短剧保底扶持预算超 15 亿元，部均保底金额较去年提升约 60%。

Since Redguo’s launch of its standalone comic drama app last October, platform support for comic and AI dramas has lasted only half a year. “Platforms are more cautious with funding. I hear TikTok’s overseas comic drama cooperation is also on hold,” said one copyright executive. The strategic shift is logical: after scaling up, platforms now prioritize profitability, especially since over 90% of short dramas are unprofitable. Low-quality comic dramas have also hurt the market’s reputation, with no breakout hits in six months.

从去年 10 月红果推出独立漫剧 APP 算起，平台对漫剧、AI 仿真人剧的扶持仅半年。业内版权经理称，“平台给钱更谨慎，TikTok 海外漫剧合作也暂缓了”。无论取消真人还是 AI 短剧保底，平台逻辑一致：规模已达峰值，重心转向盈利 —— 行业共识是超 90% 短剧不赚钱，平台不愿持续投入无回报项目。此外，低质漫剧泛滥拉低市场口碑，半年无现象级爆款，减少漫剧投入亦是从供给端清理低质产能。

ByteDance is now focusing on comic drama commercialization via brand integrations, mirroring live-action’s path. Insiders argue the AI drama sector is not dying—only low-quality productions are, with many teams now pursuing high-quality comic dramas. While many comic dramas have strong views, user satisfaction is low. One executive whose firm produced hundreds of titles noted only over a dozen hit 100 million views across platforms.

字节正发力漫剧商业化，推进品牌定制与植入，路径与真人短剧一致。业内认为，漫剧并非消亡，劣质漫剧才会出局，不少团队正深耕精品漫剧。当前漫剧播放量可观，但用户口碑欠佳。某从业者透露，其公司制作数百部漫剧，仅十几部全网播放破亿。

Notably, while Redguo cuts AI drama guarantees, Tencent’s Huolong Comic Drama is investing heavily in top producers. One insider said Huolong, though smaller, secures solid views for exclusive content, with top studios signing 20 million yuan exclusive deals. “With limited traffic against ByteDance, new platforms differentiate through exclusive content,” they said.

值得注意的是，红果收紧 AI 短剧保底之际，腾讯旗下火龙漫剧却斥巨资绑定头部制作商。某头部平台内部人士称，火龙体量虽小，但其独家剧播放量不俗，头部公司可获 2000 万独家合作费。“火龙流量不敌字节，只能靠内容差异化竞争”。

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