AI广告带来哪些挑战

The salesman in the machine 

Chatbot ads are changing the way digital marketing works

01

Chatbots are employed every day as teachers, counsellors, coders and escorts. Now they are taking on another role: salesmen. Advertisements are popping up ever more frequently in users’ conversations with large anguage models, punctuating chats with promotions.Consumers’ search queries, editing sessions and even intimate moments are increasingly at risk of interruption by sponsored messages. 

如今，聊天机器人日常身兼教师、心理咨询师、程序员、陪聊等多重身份，而现在它们又新增了一个角色：推销员。用户与大语言模型对话时，广告弹窗出现得愈发频繁，营销推广信息穿插在聊天过程中。消费者的搜索查询、文档编辑过程，甚至私人日常交流场景，都越来越容易被商业推广信息打断。

02

As chatbots become adbots, the future of two industries is at stake. For the artificial-intelligence business, ads represent a way to monetise a wildly expensive invention that most people currently use free of charge. For the ad industry, adbots are a possible answer to the existential question of how advertising will work if users move away from conventional search engines. Although it is early days, the outlines of a new kind of marketing are emerging. 

随着聊天机器人逐渐演变为广告机器人，两大行业的未来命运正悬于一线。对人工智能行业而言，广告为这项研发成本高昂、目前多数用户免费使用的技术，提供了商业化变现的途径。对广告行业来说，若用户逐渐脱离传统搜索引擎，广告机器人或将解答行业的生存难题 —— 广告该以何种形式触达用户。尽管尚处于起步阶段，但一种全新的营销模式雏形已然显现。

03

Many of the AI giants are piling in. In February OpenAI said it would begin testing ads in ChatGPT, the most widely used chatbot. Google has been trialling them in its search engine’s “AI Mode” since last year, and Microsoft has woven them into its Copilot. Amazon’s shopping assistant, Rufus, allows brands to sponsor its replies. Meta’s chatbot does not yet show ads, but since December it has been passing on insights from chats to its sister companies, Facebook and Instagram, to help them serve better-targeted plugs. 

众多科技 AI 巨头正纷纷入局。今年 2 月，人工智能研究实验室开放人工智能（OpenAI）宣布，将开始在旗下用户量最大的聊天机器人 ChatGPT 中测试广告功能。谷歌从去年起，已在搜索引擎的 “人工智能模式” 中试水广告；微软则将广告植入了自家的智能助手 Copilot。亚马逊购物助手鲁弗斯允许品牌方付费赞助智能回复内容。元宇宙平台公司（Meta）旗下聊天机器人目前尚未投放广告，但自去年 12 月起，该机器人会将用户聊天中的行为洞察同步给旗下脸书、INS两大社交平台，助力其投放更精准的推广内容。

04

For OpenAI, which reportedly expects to burn $25bn of cash this year and twice as much in 2027, the need for more revenue is acute. Although it sells subscriptions, most of ChatGPT’s more than 900m weekly users are on its free tier. Ads are a way to make money from them. And they may let the company make its best models available to users who do not pay, deepening their engagement, says Benedict Evans, a tech analyst. Even Google, with no immediate cashflow worries, has reason to bring ads to AI chats if these interactions are to replace search for some users. Already it is set to lose its crown as the biggest seller of digital ads: this year Meta will overtake it with ad revenue of $243bn, according to eMarketer, a research firm. 

据报道，OpenAI 今年预计将消耗250 亿美元现金，2027 年现金消耗更是将翻倍，公司迫切需要拓宽收入来源。尽管 OpenAI 推出了会员订阅服务，但 ChatGPT 每周超 9 亿用户中，绝大多数都在使用免费版本，广告成了挖掘免费用户价值的增收渠道。科技分析师本尼迪克特・埃文斯表示，广告业务还能让公司向非付费用户开放顶级 AI 模型，进一步增强用户粘性。即便是暂无现金流压力的谷歌，若人工智能对话场景未来会替代部分搜索引擎使用需求，也有充足理由在 AI 聊天中引入广告。市场研究机构亿邦智库（eMarketer）数据显示，谷歌即将失去数字广告行业龙头地位：今年元宇宙平台公司的广告收入将达到 2430 亿美元，反超谷歌。

05

So far the experiments are modest. Similarweb, a data provider, estimates that ChatGPT is showing ads in only about 1% of conversations, and Google in an even smaller share of AI Mode queries. But they are due to rise fast. OpenAI is said to have told investors that it expects ChatGPT to generate $2.5bn in ad revenue this year and $11bn in 2027, with a goal of hitting $100bn by 2030. 

目前各大平台的广告试点规模尚且有限。数据分析平台西米拉布（Similarweb）估算，ChatGPT 仅在约 1% 的对话中植入广告，谷歌人工智能模式的广告投放占比更低。但广告投放规模预计将快速扩张。据悉，OpenAI 已向投资方透露预期：今年 ChatGPT 广告收入将达25 亿美元，2027 年增至 110 亿美元，并定下 2030 年突破 1000 亿美元广告营收的目标。

06

The early evidence suggests that OpenAI and Google have different approaches to how a chatbot should sell. According to Similarweb, 98.5% of the ads in Google’s AI Mode appear in response to the user’s first query, rather like a conventional search engine. ChatGPT, by contrast, bides its time. Less than half its ads come in the chatbot’s first response, and nearly a third come after the tenth turn in the conversation—like a shop assistant waiting for the customer’s intent to become clear before they make their pitch. “This is not search. This is a new category of advertising,” argues Harel Amir of Similarweb. 

从现有试点能看出，OpenAI 与谷歌的聊天机器人广告投放逻辑截然不同。西米拉布数据显示，谷歌人工智能模式中 98.5% 的广告，都会在用户首次提问时推送，模式和传统搜索引擎如出一辙。而 ChatGPT 则更懂得伺机而动：不到半数广告会在首次回复中出现，近三分之一广告会在对话第十轮之后弹出，如同线下店员，会等摸清顾客需求意向后，再顺势推销。西米拉布分析师哈雷尔・阿米尔直言：“这早已不是传统搜索广告，而是全新的广告品类。”

07

So far the results are mixed. ChatGPT’s targeting sometimes seems sophisticated: for instance, advertising job-interview coaching to a user drafting a professional email. At other times it is comically literal.One user asking about cryptographic “private keys” was served an ad for metal safety-boxes from Bed Bath & Beyond. OpenAI’s fledgling ad service so far offers advertisers little in the way of performance data or the ability to target specific demographic groups, says Caelean Barnes of Gauge, which helps brands track how chatbots talk about them. 

现阶段 AI 广告的实际效果褒贬不一。ChatGPT 有时的精准投放十分巧妙：比如向正在撰写职场邮件的用户推送面试辅导广告。但有时又生硬得令人啼笑皆非：有用户询问加密货币 “私钥” 相关问题，却收到家居零售商百思买旗下门店的金属保险箱广告。品牌营销数据监测机构盖奇（Gauge）的分析师卡利安・巴恩斯指出，OpenAI 刚起步的广告业务，目前几乎无法为广告主提供投放效果数据，也不支持按特定人群画像精准定向投放。

08

OpenAI and Google also seem to be going after different kinds of advertisers. Google’s Direct Offers allow companies to promote a discount code for a product the user is researching in AI Mode.OpenAI, meanwhile, is focused on brand-building ads designed to burnish a firm’s image rather than trigger a click. So far 81% of its ads fall into that category, by Similarweb’s analysis. OpenAI may reckon that users deep in a coding or editing session are unlikely to break off to pursue an offer. 

两大巨头的广告主定位也各有侧重。谷歌的 “直达优惠” 服务，支持企业针对用户正在搜索的产品，推送专属折扣码；而 OpenAI 主打品牌形象广告，重在塑造企业口碑，而非引导即时点击转化。西米拉布分析显示，目前 ChatGPT 81% 的广告都属于这类品牌宣传类广告。OpenAI 或许认为，沉浸在编程、文案编辑等场景中的用户，基本不会中途停下操作去领取优惠福利。

09

The good news for chatbot-makers is that users do not seem to be repelled by ads. Some competitors have steered clear of sponsored replies, fearing these will hurt trust: in February Perplexity stopped showing ads and Anthropic skewered its ad-toting rivals with a series of skits showing therapists and professors suddenly launching into sales pitches. Yet Similar web finds that 72% of ads shown on ChatGPT are not on the final turn of the conversation—in other words, users keep chatting. Conversations incorporating ads last an average of about 20 turns, the same as those without. 

对聊天机器人厂商而言，好消息是：用户并未对 AI 广告产生反感抵触。部分竞品刻意避开付费赞助回复，担心广告会损耗用户信任。今年 2 月，智能搜索平台 Perplexity 直接下架广告；人工智能公司 Anthropic 还发布系列趣味短片，讽刺同行推送广告的行为 —— 片中心理咨询师、大学教授聊着天，突然生硬开始带货推销。但西米拉布调研发现，ChatGPT 中 72% 的广告并非出现在对话最后一轮，意味着用户看到广告后仍会继续交流。植入广告的对话平均时长约 20 轮，和无广告对话时长基本持平。

10

For advertisers, AI ads present two challenges. The first is measurement. If users keep chatting rather than clicking through, “post-view attribution”—the murky science of determining whether a user eventually buys the product elsewhere— will become the main way to assess a campaign’s effectiveness. The second challenge is brand safety. Mark Zuckerberg has painted a picture of a future where advertisers simply tell Meta their objective and let the AI handle the rest. But letting a chatbot write its own creative copy is a gamble. Personalised ads have proved to be more effective than generic ones. Companies may nevertheless be wary of a silicon salesman who could hallucinate a deal too good to be true. 

对广告主来说，AI 广告带来了两大全新挑战。第一大难题是效果衡量。用户大多只是继续聊天，而非点击广告跳转，那么 “浏览后归因”（一种复杂测算方式，判断用户是否在看到广告后，转而在其他渠道完成购买）将成为评估广告投放效果的核心方式。第二大难题是品牌安全。脸书创始人马克・扎克伯格曾描绘未来场景：广告主只需向 Meta 告知营销目标，其余所有环节都交由人工智能全权处理。但放任聊天机器人自行撰写广告文案，本身就是一场冒险。个性化广告固然比通用广告效果更好，可企业仍会心存顾虑：谁也无法保证这位 “人工智能（硅基）推销员” 不会凭空编造出虚假优惠、夸大体面承诺。