经济学人|AI助手正重塑数字经济

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Personal AI assistants could reshape the digital economy

个人AI助手可能重塑数字经济

SILICON VALLEY has long dreamed of building a digital assistant capable enough to rid users of many of the tedious personal tasks that gobble up time and attention. Fictional representations, such as J.A.R.V.I.S. (Just a Rather Very Intelligent System) in the "Iron Man" films, set expectations high. In 2010 Apple, the iPhone-maker, acquired Siri, one such aide. It turned out to be disappointingly moronic.

硅谷长期以来一直梦想打造一个足够强大的数字助手，让用户摆脱许多吞噬时间和注意力的乏味个人事务。虚构形象，如《钢铁侠》电影中的J.A.R.V.I.S.（只是一个非常智能的系统），设定了很高的期望。2010年，iPhone制造商苹果收购了Siri，一个这样的助手。结果它令人失望地愚蠢。

Now, amid the current wave of investment in artificial intelligence, the era of personal AI agents may at last have arrived. In the past two months Meta, a social-media giant, and Instinct, a startup, have released two such bots to great fanfare. Instinct's assistants, which users contact through Apple's iMessage service or Meta's WhatsApp, are already checking users into flights, sourcing sold-out concert tickets and arranging dinners with friends, among much else. Muse, Meta's offering, has similar powers, but can be reached via WhatsApp, a web browser, a mobile app—or, from later this year, Meta's smart glasses.

如今，在人工智能投资浪潮中，个人AI智能体的时代可能终于到来了。过去两个月，社交媒体巨头Meta和初创公司Instinct大张旗鼓地发布了两款此类机器人。Instinct的助手（用户通过苹果iMessage服务或Meta的WhatsApp联系）已经在为用户办理航班值机、寻找售罄的演唱会门票、安排与朋友的晚餐等等。Meta的产品Muse有类似能力，但可以通过WhatsApp、网络浏览器、移动应用——或者从今年晚些时候起，Meta的智能眼镜——访问。

The big shift from earlier generations of digital assistants, explains M.G. Siegler, an investor and blogger, is that these new bots can work proactively, rather than reacting only to what users explicitly ask for. Instinct "really just works in the way I believe we all want AI to act", says Noah Shinn, the startup's 24-year-old founder.

投资者兼博主M.G.西格勒解释说，与早几代数字助手相比，最大的转变是这些新机器人可以主动工作，而不是仅对用户明确要求做出反应。Instinct“真的就以我相信我们都希望AI行动的方式运作”，这家初创公司24岁的创始人诺亚·希恩说。

Uptake is soaring, so much so that Mr Shinn reckons "in a few years every user in the world that has an internet connection is going to have access to a product like Instinct." Before then, however, the companies developing personal agents will have to overcome a variety of hurdles to more widespread adoption, including concerns over security and reliability and the reluctance of some big businesses to allow the tools to interact with their systems.

使用量正在飙升，以至于希恩先生认为“几年内，世界上每个有互联网连接的用户都将能够使用像Instinct这样的产品。”然而在此之前，开发个人智能体的公司必须克服各种障碍才能更广泛采用，包括对安全性和可靠性的担忧，以及一些大企业不愿允许这些工具与其系统交互。

Instinct and Meta have pursued very different approaches to attracting users, but both have been wildly successful. In Instinct's case, users must be invited by a friend or hand-picked from a waitlist. Even so, the number of users has been growing by about 10% daily. Simplicity keeps them coming back: around half of people who have signed up to Instinct continue using it at least once a week after the first month, according to the startup. Giving Instinct's agents an instruction is as simple as writing a short text; they will then reply with updates on their progress.

Instinct和Meta在吸引用户方面采取了截然不同的方法，但都非常成功。在Instinct的案例中，用户必须由朋友邀请或从等候名单中挑选。即便如此，用户数量每天增长约10%。简单性让他们不断回来：据这家初创公司称，约一半注册Instinct的人在第一个月后至少每周使用一次。给Instinct的智能体下指令就像写一条短消息一样简单；它们随后会回复进展更新。

If Instinct is the private party taking place behind a velvet rope, Muse is the open-invite rave anyone can partake in (so long as they live in America or Canada). By all accounts, the party is heaving—and people are lingering, too. More than 1m people have downloaded the Muse app since its debut a little over a month ago, according to Sensor Tower, a data provider. ChatGPT, the hit chatbot from OpenAI that precipitated the AI boom, had only 7.5m downloads of its mobile app in the same timeframe after its release, around six months after the web version was first unveiled. Muse is retaining users at about the same rates as ChatGPT, too.

如果说Instinct是幕后天鹅绒绳索后的私人派对，Muse就是任何人都能参加的开放邀请狂欢（只要他们住在美国或加拿大）。据各方说法，派对爆满——人们也流连忘返。数据提供商Sensor Tower称，自一个多月前首次亮相以来，已有超过100万人下载Muse应用。引发AI热潮的OpenAI热门聊天机器人ChatGPT，在网页版首次亮相约六个月后的同一时间段内，其移动应用仅下载了750万次。Muse的用户留存率也大约与ChatGPT相同。

Persuading partygoers to expose their data, however, is not always easy. Personal agents need private information to reach their potential: without access to a calendar or a credit card they are little more than a glorified chatbot. Some in techland fear that the bots will leave users vulnerable to new threats such as prompt injections, where an attacker sneaks text to an AI through a website's computer code and deceives it into misbehaving.

然而，说服派对参与者暴露他们的数据并不总是容易。个人智能体需要私人信息才能发挥潜力：没有日历或信用卡的访问权限，它们不过是一个美其名曰的聊天机器人。科技界一些人担心，这些机器人将使用户容易受到新威胁的攻击，例如提示注入，即攻击者通过网站的计算机代码向AI偷偷输入文本，欺骗其行为不当。

The companies seem to be taking these concerns seriously. Meta assigns a private server for each Muse user to hold their data and operate their assistant. It has also taught Muse various ways to resist prompt injections, though some security researchers reckon it remains susceptible to malicious instructions. Instinct has revealed less to the public about its cyber-security measures, but Mr Shinn says the service is designed around the principle that users "should always be in control of their data".

这些公司似乎认真对待这些担忧。Meta为每个Muse用户分配一个私人服务器来保存其数据并运行其助手。它还教会了Muse各种抵抗提示注入的方法，尽管一些安全研究人员认为它仍然容易受到恶意指令的攻击。Instinct向公众透露的网络安全措施较少，但希恩先生说，该服务的设计原则是用户“应始终控制自己的数据”。

On top of that are concerns that personal agents could wreak havoc out of sheer stupidity. Meta has admitted that Muse will make mistakes, and has put a number of guardrails in place to minimise the potential damage when it does. Even so, some users may balk at handing over their credit-card details until they are confident their agent will handle them wisely.

除此之外，人们还担心个人智能体可能因纯粹的愚蠢而造成严重破坏。Meta承认Muse会犯错，并设置了若干护栏，以在犯错时尽量减少潜在损害。即便如此，一些用户可能会犹豫是否交出信用卡信息，直到他们确信自己的智能体能明智处理。

Prolonged exposure appears to build that trust. About 40% of Instinct users link a credit card within three weeks. Instinct and Meta also work with Stripe, a payments company, to offer a digital wallet that allows users to make purchases without handing over their banking details directly, which may reassure some.

长期接触似乎能建立这种信任。约40%的Instinct用户在三周内关联了信用卡。Instinct和Meta还与支付公司Stripe合作，提供一个数字钱包，让用户无需直接交出银行信息即可购物，这可能会让一些人放心。

The other big challenge for bot-builders is to persuade other businesses to welcome their agents. Some appear happy to do so. Shopify, a software platform for e-commerce businesses, is making it easier for Instinct and Muse to buy from its network of vendors. Meta is also working with Walmart, America's biggest retailer; Instacart, a grocery-delivery service; and Expedia, a travel-booking site.

机器人构建者的另一个重大挑战是说服其他企业欢迎他们的智能体。一些企业似乎乐于这样做。电子商务软件平台Shopify正在让Instinct和Muse更容易从其供应商网络购买。Meta还在与美国最大零售商沃尔玛、杂货配送服务Instacart和旅游预订网站Expedia合作。

But other companies are unconvinced. Amazon, for instance, is currently off-limits to both Instinct and Muse. The e-commerce giant makes a chunk of its profit from showing users ads, and currently has little need for the extra traffic that might come its way via personal agents. Amazon has also complained that Meta failed to give it a heads-up about Muse's release.

但其他公司并不信服。例如，亚马逊目前对Instinct和Muse都禁止访问。这家电子商务巨头相当一部分利润来自向用户展示广告，目前几乎不需要个人智能体可能带来的额外流量。亚马逊还抱怨Meta未能就Muse的发布提前通知它。

Some Silicon Valley bosses say that they are waiting to see how the technology develops before opening their systems to personal agents. In the meantime, the bot-builders are busily courting them. Mr Shinn gives the example of restaurant-booking platforms, some of which Instinct has won over by agreeing to prevent its agents from booking vast numbers of reservations, only to cancel all but one. Even Andy Jassy, Amazon's boss, appears to be keeping an open mind about the future, saying previously that he is "very hopeful" a fair deal will eventually be reached that allows agents to use its marketplace.

一些硅谷老板表示，他们在向个人智能体开放系统之前，正在观望技术如何发展。与此同时，机器人构建者正忙于拉拢他们。希恩先生举了餐厅预订平台的例子，Instinct已通过同意阻止其智能体大量预订、然后只保留一个而取消其余，赢得了一些平台的支持。甚至亚马逊老板安迪·贾西似乎也对未来持开放态度，此前表示他“非常希望”最终能达成公平协议，允许智能体使用其市场。

Such agreements will be necessary if personal agents are to become a viable business. Mr Zuckerberg has said that he envisages Muse will earn its keep from a combination of subscriptions and a cut of the transactions it facilitates. Mr Shinn reckons that most online spending will eventually flow through personal agents.

如果个人智能体要成为可行业务，此类协议将是必要的。扎克伯格先生表示，他设想Muse将通过订阅和从促成的交易中抽成来赚钱。希恩先生认为，大多数在线支出最终将通过个人智能体流动。

Which bot-builder wins the biggest share of that business is still up for grabs. Instinct has raised $1.4bn to date. That is a tidy sum for a one-year-old startup, but a pittance compared to what Meta has at its disposal. OpenAI and Google, maker of the Gemini models, both offer their own personal agents. Although these are currently pitched more for business than consumer use, they could expand their focus. Airbnb, a short-term rental platform that wants to make itself into a one-stop shop for all manner of experiences, has also said that it plans to launch a personal agent next year.

哪个机器人构建者赢得最大份额的业务仍悬而未决。Instinct迄今已筹集14亿美元。对一家成立一年的初创公司来说，这是一笔可观的数目，但与Meta可支配的资源相比微不足道。OpenAI和Gemini模型制造商谷歌都提供自己的个人智能体。尽管这些目前更多面向商业而非消费者使用，它们可以扩大重点。短期租赁平台Airbnb希望将自己打造成各种体验的一站式商店，也表示计划明年推出个人智能体。

Then there is Apple, which in June gave Siri a big makeover. The new bot is less of a clod, but it lacks most of the autonomous capabilities of the agents now winning over consumers. Perhaps the iPhone-maker should consider messaging Instinct.■

然后是苹果，它在6月对Siri进行了大改造。新机器人没那么笨了，但它缺乏如今赢得消费者青睐的智能体的大多数自主能力。也许iPhone制造商应该考虑给Instinct发消息。

The Economists, October 24 2026，Artificial intelligence 

（译文仅供参考）