夜雨聆风距离2026年6月高考还有不到一个月。应用文备考到了这个阶段，与其漫无目的地刷题，不如回答一个更根本的问题：哪些话题方向最有可能出现在6月的真题中？
这篇文章不做主观猜测，不引用任何人的预测观点。我们只做一件事：用数据说话。
一、我们做了什么
我们收集了2026届（2026年1月至5月）大量模拟题的应用文话题，逐题分类，建立了一个覆盖全国主要省市的应用文话题数据库。同时，我们整理了2021年新高考改革以来的全部高考真题应用文（全国卷和浙江卷），作为基准参照。
在此基础上，我们提出了一个简单的预测模型。
二、预测模型：缺口指数
逻辑——全国数百位命题教师在模拟题中集中出的话题，反映了他们对“高考可能考什么”的集体判断。当一个方向被模拟题大量覆盖、但真题从未考过时，这个“缺口”就是最有可能被6月真题填补的位置。
缺口指数 = 模拟题出现频次 × 真题空白权重
权重规则：从未考过→ 权重1.0；2023年及更早考过 → 权重0.5；2024年考过 → 权重0.3；2025–2026年考过 → 权重0。
三、结果
第一梯队（缺口指数≥13）
这四个方向在全部模拟题中合计出现了75次，占比32.3%。但在2021年至今的全国卷及浙江卷的真题中，没有一次作为应用文的主话题出现过。
第二梯队（缺口指数5–10）
已被近期真题覆盖（6月重复概率极低）
四、预测题及AI范文
基于以上数据，我们出了8道预测题，按缺口指数从高到低排列。每题附AI范文，词汇均在课标范围内。
预测题1 ◎ 科技/AI（缺口指数25.0）
假定你是李华，你的英国朋友Chris对中国的科技发展很感兴趣。请你给他写一封邮件，向他介绍一项你在日常生活中经常使用的科技产品或服务，内容包括：
（1）简要介绍该产品或服务；
（2）分享你的使用体验。
注意：
（1）写作词数应为80个左右；
（2）请按如下格式在答题卡的相应位置作答。
Dear Chris,
________________________________________________________________________
Yours,
Li Hua
【AI范文】
Dear Chris,
Knowing that you’re curious about technology in China, I’d like to tell you about something I use every single day — a mobile payment app on my phone.
Whether I’m buying breakfast from a street seller, paying for a bus ride, or splitting a bill with friends after dinner, all it takes is a quick scan. I haven’t carried cash for over a year. What amazes me is that even my grandparents have learned to use it — my grandma now pays for vegetables at the morning market with her phone, which she finds far easier than counting coins.
If you ever visit China, I’m sure this would be one of the first things that surprise you!
Yours,
Li Hua
预测题2 ◎ 劳动/志愿（缺口指数20.0）
你校上周组织了一次校园劳动实践活动。请你写一篇短文向校英文报投稿，内容包括：
（1）活动内容；
（2）你的收获。
注意：
（1）写作词数应为80个左右；
（2）请按如下格式在答题卡的相应位置作答。
A Rewarding Labor Experience
________________________________________________________________________
【AI范文】
A Rewarding Labor Experience
Last Friday, our school organised a labor practice activity on the campus farm. My group was assigned to plant tomato seedlings. Under the guidance of a local farmer, we dug small holes in the soil, carefully placed each seedling and covered the roots with earth. The sun was burning, and my back ached after just twenty minutes, but seeing the neat rows of green plants standing in the field gave me a strong sense of achievement.
What struck me most was how much patience and skill farming actually requires. This hands-on experience has taught me to value the food on my plate and respect those who work the land.
预测题3 ◎ 旅行/乡村（缺口指数17.0）
假定你是李华，你的英国笔友Peter对中国乡村生活很好奇。上周末你参观了一个乡村农场。请你给他写一封邮件，内容包括：
（1）描述你的参观经历；
（2）分享你的感受。
注意：
（1）写作词数应为80个左右；
（2）请按如下格式在答题卡的相应位置作答。
Dear Peter,
________________________________________________________________________
Yours,
Li Hua
【AI范文】
Dear Peter,
Last weekend I visited a farm in a nearby village with my classmates, and I think you’d love to hear about it.
The farm grows organic vegetables and raises free-range chickens. We spent the morning picking strawberries and digging up potatoes — my hands were covered in dirt, but I couldn’t stop smiling. In the afternoon, a young farmer showed us a smart watering system controlled by his phone. He told us he had returned from the city two years ago to start this business, and the farm now sells products online across the country.
The visit opened my eyes to how much the countryside has changed. I hope you can come and see it yourself someday!
Yours,
Li Hua
预测题4 ◎ 饮食/美食（缺口指数13.0）
假定你是李华，你的外国朋友Alex即将来中国旅行，发邮件向你询问中国美食。请你给他回一封邮件，内容包括：
（1）推荐一种中国特色美食；
（2）说明推荐理由。
注意：
（1）写作词数应为80个左右；
（2）请按如下格式在答题卡的相应位置作答。
Dear Alex,
________________________________________________________________________
Yours,
Li Hua
【AI范文】
Dear Alex,
I’m so excited to hear you’re coming to China! If you ask me what food you must try, my answer would be hotpot without a second thought.
Picture this: a bubbling pot of rich soup sits in the centre of the table, and you dip thin slices of beef, fresh vegetables, tofu and mushrooms into it, then mix your own sauce from sesame paste, chilli oil and garlic. The best part is the atmosphere — everyone gathers around the same pot, chatting and laughing while the steam rises. It turns a simple meal into a warm, shared experience.
Trust me, once you’ve tried it, you’ll want it again the next day!
Yours,
Li Hua
预测题5 ◎ 劳动 × 邀请（缺口指数20.0）
假定你是李华，你校下周将举办一次劳动实践活动。你觉得你的留学生朋友David可能会感兴趣。请你给他写一封邮件，内容包括：
（1）介绍活动内容；
（2）邀请他参加。
注意：
（1）写作词数应为80个左右；
（2）请按如下格式在答题卡的相应位置作答。
Dear David,
________________________________________________________________________
Yours,
Li Hua
【AI范文】
Dear David,
Our school is holding a labor practice activity next Saturday, and I immediately thought of you.
In the morning, we’ll work in the school vegetable garden — planting, watering and learning basic farming skills from a local expert. In the afternoon, each group will use the vegetables we harvest to prepare a simple Chinese dish. Last year, one group made tomato and egg stir-fry that everyone loved, so the cooking part is always a highlight.
I think it would be a wonderful chance for you to get your hands dirty, taste something you’ve cooked yourself, and experience a side of Chinese school life that textbooks can’t show. Would you like to join us?
Yours,
Li Hua
预测题6 ◎ 科技/AI × 校园（缺口指数25.0）
你校最近在英语课堂上引入了一款AI口语练习工具。校英文报向同学们征集使用体验。请你写一篇短文投稿，内容包括：
（1）你的使用体验；
（2）你的建议。
注意：
（1）写作词数应为80个左右；
（2）请按如下格式在答题卡的相应位置作答。
【AI范文】
Recently, our school introduced an AI-powered tool for spoken English practice, and I’ve been using it for two weeks. Here is what I’ve found.
The tool works like a patient conversation partner. After I finish a sentence, it points out my pronunciation mistakes right away and suggests a better way to express my idea. For someone like me who used to feel too shy to speak up in class, practising alone with the AI has been a real relief — I can make mistakes without feeling embarrassed.
That said, most of the topics it offers are about travel or daily routine, which feel a bit distant from our school life. I’d suggest adding topics like club activities or exam preparation so that we can practise language we actually need.
预测题7 ◎ 环保 + 劳动（缺口指数8.0+20.0）
你校开展了“旧物新生”（New Life for Old Items）创意活动，同学们将废旧物品改造成实用或装饰作品。请你写一篇短文向校英文报投稿，内容包括：
（1）介绍一件你或同学的作品；
（2）分享你的感受。
注意：
（1）写作词数应为80个左右；
（2）请按如下格式在答题卡的相应位置作答。
New Life for Old Items
________________________________________________________________________
【AI范文】
New Life for Old Items
Our school recently held a creative activity called “New Life for Old Items,” and one work truly stood out.
My classmate Wang Lei collected a dozen used plastic bottles, cut them into the shape of flower petals and painted each one a different colour. He then fixed them around a small light to make a table lamp. When it was switched on, soft, colourful light spread across the desk — it was hard to believe the lamp had once been rubbish.
This activity changed my view of waste. With a little imagination and effort, old items can begin a completely new chapter. I believe this is a habit worth keeping beyond a single school event.
预测题8 ◎ 心理健康（缺口指数5.0）
假定你是李华，你在国外的笔友Tom最近因学业压力感到焦虑，发邮件向你倾诉。请你给他回一封邮件，内容包括：
（1）表示理解和安慰；
（2）分享你应对压力的经验。
注意：
（1）写作词数应为80个左右；
（2）请按如下格式在答题卡的相应位置作答。
Dear Tom,
________________________________________________________________________
Yours,
Li Hua
【AI范文】
Dear Tom,
I’m sorry to hear that you’ve been struggling with study pressure. Please know that what you’re going through is completely normal — almost every student I know has felt the same way at some point, including me.
When pressure builds up, I find it helpful to step away from my desk for a while. A short walk, a favourite song, or even ten minutes of doing nothing can clear my mind surprisingly well. I also break big tasks into small steps so that I can focus on one thing at a time instead of worrying about everything at once. Most importantly, talking to someone you trust — a friend or a family member — always makes things feel lighter.
I believe you’ll get through this. Take care, and I’m always here if you need to talk.
Yours,
Li Hua
五、使用建议
不管练哪道题，核心不是背范文，而是练审题、列要点、组织语言这个过程。高考真题的特点是“似曾相识但没见过”——话题你一定能理解，但具体的切口一定是新的。
拿到题先做三件事：
第一，这篇文章写给谁看？（读者意识）
第二，两个要点各占多少篇幅？（比例意识）
第三，要点之间怎么过渡？（逻辑意识）
想清楚这三个问题再动笔，比多背十篇范文有用。
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