外刊精读|个人 AI 助手来了:它会如何重塑我们的工作与生活

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Silicon Valley has long dreamed of building a digital assistant capable enough to rid users of many of the tedious personal tasks that gobble up time and attention. Fictional representations, such as J.A.R.V.I.S. (Just a Rather Very Intelligent System) in the “Iron Man” films, set expectations high. In 2010 Apple, the iPhone-maker, acquired Siri, one such aide. It turned out to be disappointingly moronic.

硅谷一直梦想打造一款足够强大的数字助理，帮用户摆脱那些耗费时间与精力的琐碎事务。《钢铁侠》里的贾维斯这类虚构形象，把人们的期待拉得很高。2010 年，苹果收购了语音助手 Siri，可最终它的笨拙程度令人失望。

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Now, amid the current wave of investment in artificial intelligence, the era of personal AI agents may at last have arrived. In the past two months Meta, a social-media giant, and Instinct, a startup, have released two such bots to great fanfare. Instinct’s assistants, which users contact through Apple’s iMessage service or Meta’s WhatsApp, are already checking users into flights, sourcing sold-out concert tickets and arranging dinners with friends, among much else. Muse, Meta’s offering, has similar powers, but can be reached via WhatsApp, a web browser, a mobile app—or, from later this year, Meta’s smart glasses.

如今，在人工智能的投资热潮下，个人 AI 助手的时代或许终于到来了。过去两个月，社交媒体巨头 Meta 和初创公司 Instinct 各自推出了一款 AI 机器人，引发热议。Instinct 的助手可以通过苹果 iMessage 或 Meta 的 WhatsApp 对接用户，已经能帮用户办理值机、抢购售罄的演唱会门票、和朋友约饭等等。Meta 推出的 Muse 也具备同类功能，用户可以通过 WhatsApp、网页、手机端使用，今年晚些时候还能通过 Meta 的智能眼镜调用。

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The big shift from earlier generations of digital assistants, explains M.G. Siegler, an investor and blogger, is that these new bots can work proactively, rather than reacting only to what users explicitly ask for. Instinct “really just works in the way I believe we all want AI to act”, says Noah Shinn, the startup’s 24-year-old founder.

投资人兼博主 M.G. 齐格勒解释道，和前代数字助理相比，最大的变化在于：这些新机器人可以主动工作，而不是只在用户明确发出指令后才做出反应。这家初创公司 24 岁的创始人诺亚・辛恩表示：“Instinct 的运作方式，就是我们理想中 AI 该有的样子。”

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Uptake is soaring, so much so that Mr Shinn reckons “in a few years every user in the world that has an internet connection is going to have access to a product like Instinct.” Before then, however, the companies developing personal agents will have to overcome a variety of hurdles to more widespread adoption, including concerns over security and reliability and the reluctance of some big businesses to allow the tools to interact with their systems.

用户量正在飞速增长，辛恩甚至认为：“再过几年，全球每个能上网的用户，都能用上 Instinct 这类产品。” 但在此之前，开发个人助手的企业还需要跨过诸多障碍才能实现普及，包括用户对安全性与可靠性的顾虑，以及部分大企业不愿开放系统让 AI 工具接入的问题。

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Instinct and Meta have pursued very different approaches to attracting users, but both have been wildly successful. In Instinct’s case, users must be invited by a friend or hand-picked from a waitlist. Even so, the number of users has been growing by about 10% daily. Simplicity keeps them coming back: around half of people who have signed up to Instinct continue using it at least once a week after the first month, according to the startup.

Instinct 和 Meta 采用了完全不同的用户增长策略，但都大获成功。Instinct 采用邀请制，用户必须由好友邀请，或是从候补名单中筛选出来。即便如此，其用户量仍以每天约 10% 的速度增长。简洁的体验让用户愿意留存：该公司称，注册用户中约有一半在一个月后仍保持每周至少使用一次的频率。

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If Instinct is the private party taking place behind a velvet rope, Muse is the open-invite rave anyone can partake in (so long as they live in America or Canada). By all accounts, the party is heaving—and people are lingering, too. More than 10m people have downloaded the Muse app since its debut a little over a month ago, according to Sensor Tower, a data provider. ChatGPT, the hit chatbot from OpenAI that precipitated the AI boom, had only 3.7m downloads of its mobile app in the same timeframe after its release, around six months after the web version was first unveiled. Muse is retaining users at about the same rates as ChatGPT, too.

如果说 Instinct 是丝绒绳后门槛颇高的私人派对，那 Muse 就是人人可参与的开放式狂欢（仅限美加地区用户）。各方信息都显示，这场 “派对” 人气爆棚，用户停留时长也很可观。数据机构 Sensor Tower 显示，Muse 发布一个多月以来，下载量已突破 1000 万。而开启了 AI 热潮的爆款聊天机器人 ChatGPT，在网页版上线约半年后才推出移动端，同期下载量仅 370 万。Muse 的用户留存率也和 ChatGPT 基本持平。

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Persuading partygoers to expose their data, however, is not always easy. Personal agents need private information to reach their potential: without access to a calendar or a credit card they are little more than a glorified chatbot. Some in techland fear that the bots will leave users vulnerable to new threats such as prompt injections, where an attacker sneaks text to an AI through a website’s computer code and deceives it into misbehaving.

但要说服用户开放自己的数据，并非易事。个人助手要发挥全部潜力，必须获取用户的私人信息：如果无法读取日历、绑定信用卡，它们充其量就是个高级一点的聊天机器人。科技圈内有人担心，这类机器人会让用户面临提示词注入等新风险 —— 攻击者可以通过网站代码向 AI 植入恶意指令，诱骗它做出违规操作。

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The companies seem to be taking these concerns seriously. Meta assigns a private server for each Muse user to hold their data and operate their assistant. It has also taught Muse various ways to resist prompt injections, though some security researchers reckon it remains susceptible to malicious instructions. Instinct has revealed less to the public about its cyber-security measures, but Mr Shinn says the service is designed around the principle that users “should always be in control of their data”.

企业似乎正在认真对待这些顾虑。Meta 为每位 Muse 用户分配独立服务器存储数据、运行助手程序，还训练 Muse 掌握了多种抵御提示词注入的方法。不过部分安全研究员认为，它依然容易受到恶意指令的攻击。Instinct 对外披露的网络安全措施较少，但辛恩表示，该服务的设计原则是 “用户永远掌控自己的数据”。

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On top of that are concerns that personal agents could wreak havoc out of sheer stupidity. Meta has admitted that Muse will make mistakes, and has put a number of guardrails in place to minimise the potential damage when it does. Even so, some users may balk at handing over their credit-card details until they are confident their agent will handle them wisely.

除此之外，还有人担心个人 AI 助手会因为 “太笨” 而闯大祸。Meta 承认 Muse 会出错，并设置了多重防护机制，尽可能降低出错时的潜在损失。即便如此，一些用户在确认 AI 能稳妥处理支付之前，还是会对绑定信用卡心存顾虑。

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Prolonged exposure appears to build that trust. About 40% of Instinct users link a credit card within three weeks. Instinct and Meta also work with Stripe, a payments company, to offer a digital wallet that allows users to make purchases without handing over their banking details directly, which may reassure some.

长时间使用似乎能建立起这份信任。约 40% 的 Instinct 用户会在三周内绑定信用卡。Instinct 和 Meta 还和支付公司 Stripe 合作，推出数字钱包功能，用户无需直接提供银行信息就能完成支付，这或许能打消一部分人的顾虑。

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The other big challenge for bot-builders is to persuade other businesses to welcome their agents. Some appear happy to do so. Shopify, a software platform for e-commerce businesses, is working to make it easier for Instinct and Muse to buy from its network of vendors. Meta is also working with Walmart, America’s biggest retailer; Instacart, a grocery-delivery service; and Expedia, a travel-booking site.

机器人开发者面临的另一大挑战，是说服其他企业接纳自家的 AI 助手。部分企业对此持开放态度。电商平台 Shopify 正在优化接口，方便 Instinct 和 Muse 从其商家网络中下单。Meta 还和美国最大零售商沃尔玛、生鲜配送平台 Instacart、旅游预订网站 Expedia 达成了合作。

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But other companies are unconvinced. Amazon, for instance, is currently off limits to both Instinct and Muse. The e-emporium generates a good chunk of its profit from showing users ads, and currently has little need for the extra traffic that might come its way via personal agents. Amazon has also complained that Meta failed to give it a heads-up about Muse’s release.

但另一些企业并不买账。比如亚马逊，目前对 Instinct 和 Muse 都不开放接入。这家电商巨头的很大一部分利润来自广告展示，暂时并不需要个人 AI 助手带来的额外流量。亚马逊还抱怨，Meta 在发布 Muse 前没有提前和它打招呼。

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Some Silicon Valley bosses say that they are waiting to see how the technology develops before opening their systems to personal agents. In the meantime, the bot-builders are busily courting them. Mr Shinn gives the example of restaurant-booking platforms, some of which Instinct has won over by agreeing to prevent its agents from booking vast numbers of reservations, only to cancel all but one. Even Andy Jassy, Amazon’s boss, appears to be keeping an open mind about the future, saying previously that he is “very hopeful” a fair deal will eventually be reached that allows agents to use its marketplace.

一些硅谷企业表示，要先观望技术发展，再考虑是否向个人 AI 助手开放系统。与此同时，AI 开发者正积极争取它们的合作。辛恩举了订餐平台的例子：Instinct 承诺不会大量预订再批量取消，以此打动了部分平台达成合作。就连亚马逊的老板安迪・贾西也对未来持开放态度，他此前表示，非常希望最终能达成公平协议，让 AI 助手接入亚马逊商城。

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Such agreements will be necessary if personal agents are to become a viable business. Mr Zuckerberg has said that he envisages Muse will earn its keep from a combination of subscriptions and a cut of the transactions it facilitates. Mr Shinn reckons that most online spending will eventually flow through personal agents.

如果个人 AI 助手要成为一门可行的生意，这类合作必不可少。扎克伯格表示，他设想 Muse 的盈利模式，是订阅费加上交易佣金抽成的组合。辛恩则认为，未来大部分线上消费都会通过个人 AI 助手完成。

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Which bot-builder wins the biggest share of that business is still up for grabs. Instinct has raised $1.4bn to date. That is a tidy sum for a one-year-old startup, but a pittance compared to what Meta has at its disposal. OpenAI and Google, maker of the Gemini models, both offer their own personal agents. Although these are currently pitched more for business than consumer use, they could expand their focus. Airbnb, a short-term rental platform that wants to make itself into a one-stop-shop for all manner of experiences, has also said that it plans to launch a personal agent next year.

最终哪家企业能拿下最大的市场份额，还尚无定论。Instinct 至今已融资 14 亿美元，对一家成立仅一年的初创公司来说已是巨款，但和 Meta 的资金体量相比微不足道。OpenAI 和谷歌 Gemini 也都推出了各自的个人 AI 助手，目前它们主打企业服务，但未来完全可以拓展消费端业务。短租平台爱彼迎想打造成一站式生活体验平台，也宣布计划明年推出个人 AI 助手。

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Then there is Apple, which in June gave Siri a big makeover. The new bot is less of a clod, but it lacks most of the autonomous capabilities of the agents now winning over consumers. Perhaps the iPhone-maker should consider messaging Instinct.

还有苹果。今年 6 月，苹果对 Siri 进行了大升级。新版机器人没那么笨拙了，但和当下走红的个人 AI 助手相比，依然缺少大部分自主运作能力。或许苹果该考虑联系一下 Instinct 了。

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