【中英双语】曾预判最先被 AI 替代的岗位,京东给出劳动者转型新解法

The question of how ordinary employees avoid being eliminated amid technological upgrading has evolved from an individual corporate problem into a widespread era-wide challenge.

普通人如何跟上技术变革的脚步、不被时代抛下，早已不只是单个企业的难题，而是全社会共同面对的时代课题。

Self-driving delivery robots have gradually become a common sight on urban streets. These unmanned vehicles navigate rough roads, bypass puddles, and actively yield to pedestrians without human drivers. By June 2026, autonomous delivery vehicles have been deployed across more than 300 cities nationwide, covering urban hubs, county logistics hubs and rural pilot zones. While these robots cannot deliver parcels directly to doorsteps yet, they have fully taken over transportation tasks from sorting centers to delivery outlets.

如今街头随处可见无人快递车。车辆行驶稳定、自动躲避障碍，全程无需驾驶员操控。截至 2026 年 6 月，无人配送设备落地全国 300 多座城市，覆盖一二线城市、县域物流枢纽与乡村试点。虽然暂时还无法完成最后一公里上门派送，但是已经承接了从分拣中心到网点的干线运输工作。

This technological trend sparked heated public discussion after Liu Qiangdong delivered a speech at the APEC China Business Leaders Forum on June 21. The JD founder stated that fully automated robot delivery will eventually replace human couriers entirely. To prevent its 700,000 frontline blue-collar workers from losing their livelihoods, JD launched the Nirvana Plan.

6 月 21 日，刘强东在 APEC 工商领导人中国论坛的发言，把这场行业变革推上舆论焦点。他直言，未来快递配送会全面实现机器人自动化，快递员岗位终将消失。为了保住 70 万一线员工的工作，京东正式落地 “涅槃计划”。

The enterprise will cooperate with 124 vocational colleges across the country and provide systematic vocational training for couriers. Workers will be retrained as robot maintenance technicians, shifting from outdoor manual labor to indoor technical posts and realizing the transformation from blue-collar manual workers to office-based technical staff. The announcement split public opinion sharply: some praised the forward-looking employment protection measure, while others argued the training program was merely a polite arrangement for downsizing.

企业将联合全国 124 所合作院校，分批组织快递员参加技能培训，转型为无人设备运维技师。曾经风吹日晒的户外体力岗位，将转变为室内技术岗，实现蓝领群体的白领化转型。这番表态引发两极舆论：一部分网友称赞企业提前为员工兜底，也有不少人质疑，这项培训只是变相裁员的包装。

Behind the online debate lie two core questions: why is a logistics giant stepping into vocational education? And what choices can ordinary workers make when automation outpaces individual learning speed?

喧嚣的讨论之下，两个现实问题摆在眼前：物流大厂为何大举入局职业教育？当机器迭代速度远超个人学习能力，普通打工人又该何去何从？

The transformation of delivery posts did not emerge overnight. JD has laid out its automated logistics system for nearly two decades. Since building self-operated logistics in 2007, the company has kept warehousing, sorting, transportation and delivery under its own management, and automation has always been the core upgrade direction.

快递岗位被机器替代并不是临时决定，京东为物流自动化布局了近二十年。2007 年自建物流体系开始，京东牢牢把控仓储、分拣、运输、配送全链条，自动化升级一直是长期主线。

JD showcased its first unmanned warehouse in 2016, together with intelligent handling and sorting robots, and began road tests for end-point delivery robots. In 2017, the world’s first fully automated e-commerce warehouse officially went online in Shanghai, where thousands of robots boosted operational efficiency tenfold compared with traditional manual warehouses.

2016 年，京东首次对外展出无人仓，同步推出搬运机器人、分拣机械臂，启动末端无人配送车路测。2017 年，上海建成全球首个电商全流程无人仓，数千台机器人协同作业，作业效率达到传统人工仓库的十倍。

The pace of robot rollout has accelerated sharply in recent years. In October 2025, JD announced a five-year plan to deploy 3 million logistics robots, 1 million unmanned vehicles and 100,000 delivery drones. The sixth-generation autonomous delivery vehicle was put into regular operation in nearly 30 cities including Tianjin and Guangzhou, and even started trial operation in Saudi Arabia.

近几年机器落地速度持续加快。2025 年 10 月，京东宣布五年内部署 300 万台物流机器人、100 万台无人车、10 万架配送无人机。第六代无人配送车在天津、广州等近 30 座城市常态化运营，并且落地沙特开展海外测试。

IBM launched the free SkillsBuild online platform covering AI, cloud computing and cybersecurity courses; Microsoft keeps expanding certification courses for generative AI. Amazon’s Career Choice program stands out the most, with total investment exceeding 1.2 billion US dollars. The training covers mechatronics, data analysis and medical care, combining classroom teaching with on-site practice. Employees who complete the courses can achieve a salary increase of nearly 50% on average.

IBM 上线免费学习平台，开设人工智能、网络安全课程；微软持续完善生成式 AI 培训认证。其中亚马逊的 “职业选择” 项目投入超 12 亿美元，覆盖机电一体化、数据分析、医护多个方向，采用理论 + 在岗实操模式，完成全部培训的员工薪资平均涨幅接近五成。

However, massive investment in staff training cannot fully eliminate public doubts. The biggest controversy lies in the gap between skill sets. Courier work relies on physical strength and route familiarity, while robot maintenance requires mechanical principles, circuit knowledge and basic programming capabilities. It remains unclear whether short-term vocational training can bridge such a big professional gap.

除此之外，岗位承载力也饱受质疑。即便大批量无人车落地，运维岗位能否承接 70 万员工转型？培训是脱产学习还是半工半读，过渡期薪资如何调整，这些关键细则都没有对外公开，记者向京东求证也未得到明确答复。

Behind the generous staff education plan lies the cold logic of corporate automation layout. Internal Amazon documents were exposed by The New York Times, revealing the company’s target of realizing 75% warehouse automation by 2027. Full-scale robot deployment will cut 160,000 new recruitment quotas and save 12.6 billion US dollars in labor costs.

优厚的员工教育方案背后，是企业自动化降本的理性布局。《纽约时报》曝光亚马逊内部文件：企业计划在 2027 年实现仓储环节 75% 自动化，大规模落地机器人可以减少 16 万个新增招聘名额，节省 126 亿美元人力开支。

To defuse public criticism caused by massive job cuts, the company launched charity projects and adjusted public relations strategies to improve its social image. MIT economist Daron Acemoglu pointed out that technological progress does not simply eliminate jobs, but restructures work tasks and sets new standards for qualified employees.

为了应对大规模裁员引发的舆论压力，亚马逊配套推出公益项目、优化对外宣传，缓和公众情绪。麻省理工学院经济学家阿西莫格鲁提出：技术革新不会单纯消灭岗位，而是拆分工作任务，重新定义企业需要什么样的劳动者。

In this context, vocational retraining becomes a screening threshold. Workers who can adapt to new technical posts will stay in the industrial chain; those who fail to complete skill transformation will eventually be eliminated by automation.

在这套逻辑之下，再培训就变成了筛选门槛：能够完成技能升级的劳动者，继续留在产业体系内；无法跟上转型节奏的人，最终会被自动化浪潮淘汰。

Liu Qiangdong stressed that JD will not lay off any frontline workers displaced by robots, but the large-scale Nirvana Plan still needs real-world results to prove its effectiveness. No matter whether the transition plan succeeds or not, one conclusion remains clear: technological substitution is irreversible. For ordinary people, the core challenge is finding their own position amid industrial upgrading, instead of waiting passively for corporate resettlement.

刘强东反复强调，不会辞退任何被机器人替代的一线员工，但这项覆盖几十万人的涅槃计划，依然需要长期实践来验证落地效果。无论企业转型方案能否圆满落地，技术替代人力已经成为大势所趋。对于普通劳动者而言，不能单纯依靠企业兜底，只有主动跟上产业升级，才能在机器时代守住自己的职业阵地。

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原标题：传说中“会最先被机器人取代”的职业，被刘强东找到了新出路？

原链接：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/842Oi2onEfn-5-YXX6_azA