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关于战争与AI, 现在没想明白的3件事/矛盾

当前时间： 1970-01-01 08:00:00 分类：办公文件 评论(0)
关于战争与AI, 现在没想明白的3件事/矛盾
开车来回公司路上没其他事, 只好 或者听CFA课程, 或者"胡思乱想".....就说下我没想明白的3个事吧, 大家随意讨论.
1. 如果Iran在Trump政府的压力下迅速妥协的话, 可以说它在国内的"治理合法性"就没了 = 倒台.
既然如此, 一个是必死, 一个是可能死, 那为何要迅速妥协? 
AI: 大模型能力真是进入"足够好+下面能力缓慢上升"的阶段了

足够好:

1. 已经包括我们自己在内的周围的好多人更有知识+智慧了......

2. 从业界消息: 训练大模型的数据用的差不多了. 新的数据也就是实际领域专业工作流+比如机器人的物理数据

3. 目前各模型的版本更新后能力增幅越来越小

所以以这种"比较稳定的模型"为基础Build各种应用层是很合适的事.

延续之前 [算大数: AI 的天花板 -- 地球~ + BNY的疯狂例子]中的讨论, 我们按照Labor Compensation 年度增速2.5% + 大概50%的"整体AI取代人毛利润率"计算,
按照大概纯"无障碍"增长的话, 大概2030年初到天花板.
同时因为市场是向前看的, + 未来1年的订单早就Fixed=实际是往前看2-3年. 所以2028年初的时候 2年Forward指引就很容易Capped了. 
现在处在应用初期的"兴奋阶段", 实际用起来很多很麻烦的事...
根据具体Workflow 实际做AI Agent+部署我干过, 一堆脏活累活, 一开始容易, 之后很容易碰到"各种铁板". 
甚至还有个很搞笑的事: 

很多低频任务, 训练需要花很多时间, 是否值得"教AI"干....

哪怕训练完, 有时候一个任务我顺手就干了, 都不值得开AI软件的....

所以, 第二个我没想通的事: 尽管一直在增长, 但增长率应该是不停下降而非维持高速的.
紧接着第三个: 你让美国老百姓, 或者说全世界任何地方的老百姓, 兜里少了20%的钱, 
"我MD不去烧了你Y的XX数据中心"都怪了!!!
甚至别说-20%了, 哪怕每年不涨工资(=0增速), 都可以一堆抗议了.
二三结合一下的话大概就是:
现在吃的是最容易吃的部分, 之后来自实际Workflow的, 社会的各种难吃的部分袭来 跟我在Bloomberg Terminal里看到的对未来长期高速增长的数字之间存在的矛盾.
By S2 @ Florida
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  1. CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000670s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=wenku;charset=utf8mb4
  2. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fenlei` [ RunTime:0.000835s ]
  3. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 0 [ RunTime:0.000301s ]
  4. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `fid` = 63 [ RunTime:0.000259s ]
  5. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000490s ]
  6. SELECT * FROM `set` [ RunTime:0.000189s ]
  7. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `article` [ RunTime:0.000500s ]
  8. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` = 594893 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000394s ]
  9. UPDATE `article` SET `lasttime` = 1778316672 WHERE `id` = 594893 [ RunTime:0.016248s ]
  10. SELECT * FROM `fenlei` WHERE `id` = 64 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000420s ]
  11. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 594893 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000564s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` > 594893 ORDER BY `id` ASC LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000408s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 594893 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.000919s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 594893 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 10,10 [ RunTime:0.001103s ]
  15. SELECT * FROM `article` WHERE `id` < 594893 ORDER BY `id` DESC LIMIT 20,10 [ RunTime:0.001448s ]
0.126671s